– This year’s spring runup was almost unaffected by the same Memorial Day inflection that showed in all the other yearly series.
– A Katrina-like spike could easily put the price somewhere above $5.25.
– This year’s runup has continued for longer than any of the other spring runups.
– 2005 was rather odd .. the refineries apparently overestimated the spring retail needs, overshot production, and drove the price down, which is why the Mem Day inflection was upside-down. That or the refiners made too much winter blend and had to dump it at a loss.
[If you click on image it will enlarge, I’ll fix it later so that it will link to an even larger, higher quality image suitable for printing out and killing more trees – JR]
[originally posted July 10th]