ASPO-USA ran this Dave Cohen piece last week. I thought it was a little odd so I made achart to try to visualize it and then wrote a response. I’m surprised they printed it.

Cohen Prediction

The orange box is where Dave says there is an 80% chance of the peak occuring. The yellow represents 20%. I don’t buy it. But he says he’s moving on.

11 Replies to “ASPO-USA”

  1. That’s an interesting graph, JR. I read Dave Cohen’s post and it sure has me wondering. I think the critical comment by J. Rink there has some merits. Dave’s a “supply sider” in his analysis, so I suspect he’s being generous, even though he thinks he’s conservative. A lot of fuel demand destruction could occur in the US and elsewhere over the next few years. If so, then the price will drop and OPEC, at least, will cut back production (“husband” the precious resource) accordingly, to keep prices high.

    Folks here won’t be returning to SUVs or, for that matter, buying fancy new electric cars once they lose their life savings and/or jobs, no matter how cheap gas gets. Hence the saying, “once bitten, twice shy”. I’m sure the greeny optimists will call it conservation (IT’S WORKING!), but it will just be cutbacks because we are entering Jim’s LE, bumpy with some nice cliffs.

    They say that oil demand is inelastic, well the same can be said of demand loss by middle and lower income folks, once they pass an economic failure barrier. From the signs in the news (frequency and severity), we seem not far from that point now in the US. Asking for the country’s and global economic picture to remain rosy enough to extend a production peak or plateau out to 2012, well, it ain’t gonna happen. It might have lasted that long if the financial big boys had been playing fair, before Reagan and the Bushes changed the rules and let them play their dangerous games.

  2. Oh! C’mon, EE, that’s an easy mistake to make.

    ‘Big’ is a crappy movie Tom Hanks made in 1988 which nobody has ever seen.

    ‘Giant’ is an Oscar-winning classic starring James Dean, Liz Taylor, Rock Hudson, and Dennis Hopper.

    Anybody could mix them up. Why are you always picking on me?

  3. “Anybody could mix them up. Why are you always picking on me?”

    Because she really likes you, duh…

  4. EE – I don’t know what kind of a mental patient puts together a video of Giant clips mostly featuring Jett Rink (it was kinda gay) and uses a (it seemed) slightly rare mix of Kurt’s “You know you’re right” as the soundtrack.

    But that was my favorite piece of the week. I loved it.

    You guys and gals post a lot of links here and I don’t always comment on them. That doesn’t mean I don’t love them.

    I showed Dave’s “Cluckers” to three people. Two were crying they were laughing so hard. The third said this (I swear) after it was halfway done, and I quote – “wait, this can’t be real, this is staged.”

    I tried to bite my lip and just said,”oh, definitely, but don’t you think the way they did the fake german accents was funny?”

    Spaceman Jones is, of course, classic stuff.

    And Bif –

    New Order’s Crytstal is their best work since Blue Monday. You were right. Song Rocks. very subtle.

  5. Doom – I’ve commented on ASPO before (not as Jett Rink), but they blocked me. Dave and I go way back. I obviously threw some kiss-ass shit in there that I normally would never use. Guess who wrote me. Yeah, Dave Cohen himself. Long, well-thought response. He said I was quibbling.


    That’s what his article said.

    Do I respond to Dave? Or do I simply print Dave’s response here?

  6. Tough call, JR, I guess I’d post it here, unless you think Dave C. will get pissed about it and never write you again. If the latter, send me the response by email. I’d like to read it, either way. I think Dave C. knows I’m a fan.

  7. Doom,

    You need to start putting your various 200 and 250 word reponses together, picking out the best thoughts and phrases and sentences and putting those together in a 1000 word piece.

    where is Nudge?

  8. I have to admit that I prefer just to air out some thoughts, commando style. I’m not in this for the fame and glory. I’d rather be rich than famous. I hear you on the 1000+ word posts. Maybe there is something to expand upon in that last one above on DC-ASPO–I can feel it in my bones–I’ve hit a nerve, at least one of my own. I’m very nervous about our future at the moment, and I mean the big OUR, as in all of us, save the elite assholes, whom I’m hoping will be raped and tortured, you know, like my distant ancestors did to their Roman overlords.

    I will also admit to being extra kind to DC. There are many reasons for this: he really cares and it is apparent he is not doing this for fame and glory, at least relative to those over at TOD; he, like you, fights the good fight over at TOD; his ASPO comment count is low, so I try to be supportive. I suspect that many read his posts, but are too timid to respond. It may just be the nature of the ASPO site, or it could be Dave’s writing style.

  9. Nudge wrote that she was taking a few days off to basically regroup. She wants more pay or she will leave us and start her own blog, at least that’s the threat. Maybe it’s time you took her to lunch/dinner and told her how you really feel about her.

    (notice how I can apply pressure?)

  10. “Anybody could mix them up. Why are you always picking on me?” –JR

    It’s part of your training, young man. Stop the whining.

    And I, in fact, saw “Big” a couple of times and really liked it, and “Splash”… I’m into silly schlock on occasion. And I liked Hanks in “Philadelphia” especially the Opera sequences.

    “But that was my favorite piece of the week. I loved it.”

    Of course you did. I knew you would. It was a compliment to your skills responding to Cohen’s piece and a tribute to your clever use of the nom de plume Jett Rink–the renegade oilman played by the renegade James Dean in Giant. The soundtrack was an added serendipitous bonus.

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