Election 2008

[ update  Sept. 25th  – Intrade Odds widen substantially ]

National Intrade Odds:
Sept. 18th – Obama: 55 , McCain: 44

If we believe the University of New Hampshire poll that puts McCain ahead 47-45 in the Granite State, then this sucker is tied at 269 to 269 Electoral College Votes. I looked up what would happen in this instance on wikipedia a few weeks ago, but I forget. Somebody do that and get back to me.

Palin’s PetroPolitics

[update Sept. 19th – Both Intrade and RCP are awarding Nevada to McCain]


Real Clear Politics

Try this link to create your own interactive map – pretty cool!

I’m in the process of redo-ing the following table to reflect the latest poll data

State Del poll State Del poll
Obama McCain
Californiay 55 +13   Texas 34 +10
New Yorky 31 +13 Tennessee 11 +18
Illinoisy 21 Alabama 10 +11
Michigany 17 Kentucky 9 +23
New Jersey 15 South Carolina 8 +15
Massachusetts 12 Louisiana 8 +9
Washington 11 Oklahoma 7   +32
Wisconsin 10 Mississippi 6 +14
Maryland 10 Kansas 6 +16
Iowa 7 Nebraska 5 +18
Connecticut 7   Utah 5 +36
Oregon 153 Idaho 4 +21
Hawaii Alaska 3   +22
Rhode Island Wyoming 3 +6
New Hampshire 21 Tie  Total 125
Maine 15 +6 blank
Delaware 11 +5  
Vermont 10 Tie
Wash DC 10 +3
total 7 +10   –
blank 7 +5
blank 5 +4
Pennsylvania +14 Arkansas   –
Minnesota 90 West Virginia
Colorado South Dakota
Nevada Total
New Mexico blank
Subtotal xxx Subtotal xxx
Florida 17 +3 Georgia 27  ?
Ohio 9 +2 North Carolina 20 ?
Virginia 4 +5 Missouri 13 +1
Indiana 11 +6
Total 30 Arizona 5 ? 
North Dakota 76 
 Total xxx  GTotal xxx 
Grand Total Grand Total
Grand Total Grand Total

The states in the top sections shaded dark blue and red are considered to be guaranteed wins for the respective candidates. The middle sections shaded light blue and red have also been considered locks by most polls to date, with the noted exceptions. The bottom section in gold are the states that are still considered toss-ups. I have placed them in the columns where Intrade and many polls have determined they will eventually wind up. I have placed question marks next to the three states where recent polls have given them to the opposite candidate.

[Last update: Sept 18th]

Pennsylvania – a flip would win the election for McCain
Minnesota – a flip would win the election for McCain
Colorado – a flip would tie the election
Nevada – a flip of both Nevada and New Mexico would win the election for McCain
New Mexico
Florida – a flip would seal the election for Obama

The numbers that I have only partially filled out in the “poll” column are an arbitrary number I have chosen typically by using either the average spread shown on Real Clear Politics or the latest spread.

– – – – –

11 Replies to “Election 2008”

  1. Wow, thanks JR. There for a minute I thought Obama might lose this election in a squeeker with Florida or Ohio again deciding the outcome. Whew!

    Well, let’s just say it looks like it’s his to lose. Too bad, we could use some laughs in these coming tough times with VP Palin and family.

  2. FAR, thanks for that article link. It’s clear now, and actually has been all along, that GWB and his cronies have been out to loot the country. As the article mentions, first it was with the tax cuts, which mainly helped the rich, and then the War on Terror, a war on an abstraction, not any particular nation or group, with goals of never ending, which supports the same rich elite as the tax cuts did and continue to do. We can and have argued about whom actually perpetrated the 9-11 events, but it was certainly (a) a big show and (b) an opportunity to push an agenda.

    So, whether you believe in motive and guilt, or think the events were as officially described, the end result has been yet another opportunity to gut the country’s wealth and put the biggest piece of it into the hands of a few, all the while claiming falsely (yet again) that they are acting as “conservatives”. Certainly not so in a fiscal sense, as the author rightly points out.

    GWB and company are so cynical and corrupt. They deserve to be punished harshly for their deeds and we, dear friends, deserve much better people leading our country, before it’s too late. I hope it is not so, but I worry that it is.

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