Declining Crude Oil Production
The chart above shows the production of the 20 countries in probable decline. The peak was in 1997.
This is an effort to show what is going on with oil. It is a complete work and it has actually been finished for almost a year. What isn’t done is are the words. So I’m just going to take this very slow and build on it. There is no name for this and there is and hopefully won’t be any conclusion. I started this project in 2005.
Part V – Declining oil production
There are many countries that produce crude oil. 50 produce about 99%. I have arbitrarily divided these 50 countries into 5 groups. 2 of these groups can be condensed into one, but we will get to that later.
I wanted to start with the last group because I believe I can actually present a very accurate prediction with it.
There are twenty countries whose oil production has peaked and doesn’t show any realistic chance of rising again in the long term. In any given year the production for these countries may be higher than the year before, but as a group, their production has fallen every year since about 1997.
The criteria for being placed in this group is simple and yet arbitrary. A country’s production has fallen three years in a row. I could have used two years, I could have used 4. If you look at the long term rates of some of these countries you will see that in some cases their production has risen the last couple of years, but overall, they have been declining for a long time. I’ve provided the year of highest production.
The average annual decline rate calculated monthly for the last 5 years or so is about 3.5%. 5 years from now this will still probably be around 3.5%. That means that in 5 years this group will have lost approximately 3 mbpd in production from current levels that either have to be dealt with domestically/globally or somehow made up by countries with increasing production.
The following table uses numbers from BP’s annual statistical survey. This survey includes what are called NGPLs and other forms of “oil” so the total global output you should measure these figures against is 85 or 86 mbpd.
So roughly 20 or 25% of global production should be considered in verified geologically-driven decline when calculated on a country-by-country rather than field-by-field basis.
This is a true bottom-up analysis. There is nothing hidden here. There is nothing that the author thinks is too complicated for the reader to handle. The numbers are available from BP through their homepage.
The rank given is simply the position within the twenty determined by production. The other two columns are rank within the group of top exporters and rank overall in the group of top 50 international producers.
None of these countries is in OPEC. Indonesia was, but has left or been removed after failing to be a net exporter for years. As you can see, Indonesia’s production stopped rising in 1991.