33 Replies to “February Chi9nese Man Post”

  1. this thread reminds me that i need to order some more valves from my taiwan manufacturer. probably order at least three this time. need to figure an automated mode and look into larger sizes.

  2. True story. Yesterday I’m putting on the overcoat, leaving a neighborhood diner with a friend, and an old man at adjacent table says, “Excuse me sir, but my friends and I were guessing you guys are either clergy or undertakers”. I just laughed and tipped my hat. Take care fellers.

  3. When I’m in the local diner the patrons near me are probably guessing more along the lines of…well…not clergy….more like equal parts black mamba snake and Tasmanian devil.

  4. Stoneleigh (TAE): “People have been asking how we see the future unfold. In case you wonder what we: stand for, much of our view of what’s to come can be found in the primers on the right-hand side bar. Here is an additional brief summary (in no particular order and not meant to be exhaustive) of the ground we have consistently covered here at TAE over the last year and a half, and before that elsewhere.

    Deflation is inevitable due to Ponzi dynamics (see From the Top of the Great Pyramid)
    The collapse of credit will crash the money supply as credit is the vast majority of the effective money supply
    Cash will be king for a long time
    Printing one’s way out of deflation is impossible as printing cannot keep pace with credit destruction (the net effect is contraction)
    Debt will become a millstone around people’s necks and bankruptcy will no longer be possible at some point
    In the future the consequences of unpayable debt could include indentured servitude, debtor’s prison or being drummed into the military
    Early withdrawls from pension plans will be prevented and almost all pension plans will eventually default
    We will see a systemic banking crisis that will result in bank runs and the loss of savings
    Prices will fall across the board as purchasing power collapses
    Real estate prices are likely to fall by at least 90% on average (with local variation)
    The essentials will see relative price support as a much larger percentage of a much smaller money supply chases them
    We are headed eventually for a bond market dislocation where nominal interest rates will shoot up into the double digits
    Real interest rates will be even higher (the nominal rate minus negative inflation)
    This will cause a tsunami of debt default which is highly deflationary
    Government spending (all levels) will be slashed, with loss of entitlements and inability to maintain infrastructure
    Finance rules will be changed at will and changes applied retroactively (eg short selling will be banned, loans will be called in at some point)
    Centralized services (water, electricity, gas, education, garbage pick-up, snow-removal etc) will become unreliable and of much lower quality, or may be eliminated entirely
    Suburbia is a trap due to its dependence on these services and cheap energy for transport
    People with essentially no purchasing power will be living in a pay-as-you-go world
    Modern healthcare will be largely unavailable and informal care will generally be very basic
    Universities will go out of business as no one will be able to afford to attend
    Cash hoarding will continue to reduce the velocity of money, amplifying the effect of deflation
    The US dollar will continue to rise for quite a while on a flight to safety and as dollar-denominated debt deflates
    Eventually the dollar will collapse, but that time is not now (and a falling dollar does not mean an expanding money supply, ie inflation)
    Deflation and depression are mutually reinforcing in a positive feedback spiral, so both are likely to be protracted
    There should be no lasting market bottom until at least the middle of the next decade, and even then the depression won’t be over
    Much capital will be revealed as having been converted to waste during the cheap energy/cheap credit years
    Export markets will collapse with global trade and exporting countries will be hit very hard
    Herding behaviour is the foundation of markets
    The flip side of the manic optimism we saw in the bubble years will be persistent pessimism, risk aversion, anger, scapegoating, recrimination, violence and the election of dangerous populist extremists
    A sense of common humanity will be lost as foreigners and those who are different are demonized
    There will be war in the labour markets as unempoyment skyrockets and wages and benefits are slashed
    We are headed for resource wars, which will result in much resource and infrastructure destruction
    Energy prices are first affected by demand collapse, then supply collapse, so that prices first fall and then rise enormously
    Ordinary people are unlikely to be able to afford oil products AT ALL within 5 years
    Hard limits to capital and energy will greatly reduce socioeconomic complexity (see Tainter)
    Political structures exist to concentrate wealth at the centre at the expense of the periphery, and this happens at all scales simultaneously
    Taxation will rise substantially as the domestic population is squeezed in order for the elite to partially make up for the loss of the ability to pick the pockets of the whole world through globalization
    Repressive political structures will arise, with much greater use of police state methods and a drastic reduction of freedom
    The rule of law will replaced by the politics of the personal and an economy of favours (ie endemic corruption)”

  5. “Universities will go out of business as no one will be able to afford to attend”

    i’m not worried as long as governments and banks continue to issue student loans. i’d figure on them losing popularity as no positions or other opportunites at gainful employment present themselves in an ever shrinking economy.

  6. Yeah the French are interesting people. Too bad the meteor didn’t hit there instead. They’d be protesting in the streets right now.

  7. That Stonleigh needs to calm the fuck down and take it easy. What good is it to labor away at doomsday lists like that. Yeah things are bad but what are you going to do about it and how do you want to spend your day.

  8. humm, i wonder how tasty dog meat is? our dog must weight about 50 pounds, maybe only 30 dressed out. i’ll miss those barks and licks, though.

  9. why ur? good food, hot women, good music, awsome wine, population still able to engage the politik, lot’s o’ topless beaches (that would be a horror show in ‘merica), the citrion (still made?), pugeot, renault ( are any of them still made?) what’s not to like? lot’s a nuclear reactors – that’s kinda kooky.

  10. ” lot’s a nuclear reactors – that’s kinda kooky.”

    that’s how France will fuck itself, along with a few close neighbors. if i lived in europe or france, i’d want to know the predominant wind pattern. kinda like hedging your bets.

    per TAE, France is broke, BTW. they won’t decomission all those nukes, so i guess they’ll do so all by themselves, the hard way. gaelic pride.

  11. Ahh. De Gaulle has been dead 45 years. But still, there’s the “good food, hot women, good music, awsome wine, population still able to engage the politik, lot’s o’ topless beaches.” It really is a relaxing place to hang about.

    They are nutty and kooky alright but who isn’t really.

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