The Grand Delusion
Almost a decade after the Hurricane Katrina price-spike, Saudi exports have only increased by a million barrels per day. The “swing-producer.” The only country with plenty of shut-in, emergency capacity to spare.
The price of oil is fairly stable around $100/barrel. A decade ago Daniel Yergin and CERA were only unsure if oil would remain at $40 (“or more”) or crash down to 1998 levels. Whoops.
The Oil Drum has apparently been driven to collapse. By whom or what I am not sure. Yergin has been railing in a highly emotional manner about the fraudulent nature of “peak-oil theory.”
He published a sequel to The Prize in 2011. The Quest. I just discovered this book. (I’ve been kinda out of the loop oil-wise for a few years).
I flipped right to the chapter ‘The Demand Shock’ on page 161 of this 700 page masterpiece of obfuscation. The narrative of this chapter conveniently starts in about 2004 and runs through 2010 and 2011. In ends with a conversation with Robert Schiller. The conclusion being that the price move to roughly $150 in the summer of 2008 could be seen as a bubble that had ended by 2011. I’ll point out here that only stayed above $120 very briefly from a historical perspective and that we are currently a long-term sustained highs in the price of oil.
The Quest is not end-noted very well, Daniel Yergin apparently perceives ownership of much of this information. But in a few instances it is interesting to see that the only end-notes are for IHS CERA and the work of Peter Jackson. More interestingly there is no mention of the 2005 CERA Private Report and its predictions gone horribly wrong. More on this soon.