The Grand Delusion – Sept. 1st, 2014

Sept. 1st, 2014

The peak happened at the turn of the century between 1998 and 2003. It may have happened slightly earlier or later. The exact year may never be known, but it we will only see it more clearly the farther away from it we get. And it is irrelevant. It happened.

For the first decade of this century there was (and continues) a debate about the legitimacy of “The Peak Oil Theory.” The “theory” (its alarms, claim some, having been sounded no less then five times in the last hundred plus years since oil was discovered in Pennsylvania) is actually simply the curve on a graph. It is based on mathematics related to observable traits of the oil reservoirs as crude oil is produced from them.

The “peak” was the midway point on a bell curve which contained all the world’s “reserves.” The debate largely focused on the date of the peak, past which oil production was declining – this of course lead to debate about how many “reserves” there were.

The debate produced dozens of good books and information about the most important [fill in the word, I’m at a loss for one] of human existence: oil. But the peak had already happened. Everybody missed it because they were looking at the wrong numbers.

Around the turn of the century, the price began to rise. It at least quadrupled in about a decade from $20 to $80. And I’m not talking about the price of oil that the consumer is willing to buy oil at, at the pump, filling out the demand/supply equation. What rose and is really key to an understanding of oil economics is the price at which global producers are willing to pay to extract 90 million barrels per day(mbpd).

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Price_Chart_1

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The blue line is a six-month average of the monthly Nymex price, inflation adjusted.
The red and green lines are the maximum and minimum price from the PRECEDING 3 years to the blue line.

18 Replies to “The Grand Delusion – Sept. 1st, 2014”

  1. JR, that’s a pretty original treatment, worthy of a post to peakoilbarrel (ron patterson’s blog), since the oil drum is dead (and you were banned from that site multiple times, anyway–they couldn’t handle the unvarnished truth). you obviously posted it here first, but if you want moron eyes to view it, the peakoilbarrel site is where to post it.

    so hubbert was right for the wrong reasons, or it was just a coincidence he picked either 1995 or 2000 for the global peak, depending upon which of his global reserve estimates was correct.

    your price analysis also adds in the ERoEI, since it is the inflation-adjusted price of extraction that is a close monitor of ERoEI. so global net oil energy peaked in about 2000. there’s still a lot of oil to extract, it’s just the harder to get stuff that costs moron to pull out of the rock, tar sands, tight oil, GoM deepwater, S. Atlantic subsalt deepwater, etc.

  2. That’s what Ray Rice and his wife are going to be like in 10 years. He’s gonna be broke and have bad knees and she is gonna be super bitter. Ain’t love grand?

  3. you can take an uptight american to relaxing indonesia, but all you get is an uptight american in relaxing indonesia. i don’t know what the euros are doing. they appear to know what they are doing, but i have my doubts. the locals are living in blissful ignorance of the outside world, while slowly choaking in wall-to-wall people and about 90% gridlock in the cities.

  4. used to be a buddhist place, judging by all the temple ruins. now, it’s mostly muslim with some hindos mixed in for cultural color, i guess. moi, i’m an atheist mascarading as a buddhist, or is it just a poor practicing buddhist?

  5. Hello JR. I am Futilitist. My research led me to this comment:

    “JR, that’s a pretty original treatment, worthy of a post to peakoilbarrel (ron patterson’s blog), since the oil drum is dead (and you were banned from that site multiple times, anyway–they couldn’t handle the unvarnished truth). you obviously posted it here first, but if you want moron eyes to view it, the peakoilbarrel site is where to post it.”

    I was just banned for life from peakoilbarrel, as Futilitist. I had been commenting there for only a couple of months. Before that, in August of 2012, I was banned for life from theoildrum, as LOREN_SOMAN, my real name. I had been commenting there for more than two years.

    I certainly agree that peakoilbarrel is a website for morons (targeted at morons). But it would be a mistake to think that you will just argue with morons there. That is an act. Peakoilbarrel, like theoildrum that spawned it, is an oil industry/CIA run disinformation/propaganda site. You will argue with a gang of trained psyops spooks, who, you are correct, are not the brightest individual bulbs, but they are well trained in very sophisticated techniques derived from social psychology (especially applied mimetic theory). And they are coordinated. So, really they are a bunch of well organized, highly trained monkeys armed with the most advanced tools of psychological deception.

    Google “peakoilbarrel Futilitist” to get an idea of what I did while in residence at peakoilbarrel.

    Here are my banning bitch blogs, designed to inflame, and to sarcastically parody peakoilbarrel to hopefully start to create some kind of “hip” comedic frame for the issue:

    http://futilitist.blogspot.com/2015/03/peakoilbarrel-cover-up.html

    http://futilitist.blogspot.com/2015/04/peakoilbarrel-scandal.html

    http://futilitist.blogspot.com/2015/04/peakoilbarrel-soft-pedals-collapse.html

    So, my blog currently functions as an anti-peakoilbarrel propaganda mirror site that data mines the peakoilbarrel site for ongoing evidence of conspiracy/fraud. All with an emphasis on educating the public on the specific social psychology deceptions employed by such sites. You can’t fool all of the people all of the time.

    I am a psychologist. I am currently working on a Phd in social psychology/social theory, with an emphasis on mimetic theory (imitation science). But I originally joined theoildrum because I was simply interested in peak oil. Imagine my surprise when I asked earnest questions that made people uncomfortable, and I began noticing distinct patterns of deception/deflection/obfuscation and mobbing, all folded into classic “mirroring” style post structures, and very carefully constructed fallacious “framing” arguments, etc., etc.

    My first working theory was that this strange behavior was the result of naturally occurring Groupthink tendencies. With further observation, however, I soon realized that I was *WAY* wrong. This was clearly not just human nature on steroids. It was obviously a well designed, organized fraud, i.e. a fucking conspiracy! I was pissed off and totally fascinated at the same time. I decided to table my peak oil curiosity in favor of using my training in psychology and social theory to carefully document, prove, and publicly expose the fraud.

    But the rabbit hole goes even deeper. *WAY* deeper.

    To illustrate, here is a comment I recently made to someone named Karen Allen. I found her name in a discussion predating my arrival at pealoilbarrel. She makes an amazing argument. It inspires me to post this to her blog:

    “Hello Karen.

    Please forgive this off topic comment.

    I was recently banned from peakoilbarel.com. I posted there as Futilitist. I have been doing some research through the comments section on that site and I encountered this comment by you:

    Karen Allen says:
    MARCH 9, 2014 AT 3:02 PM

    “It’s been established that an enormous amount of money is being spent to fund climate change denial. I suspect a few years from now we will hear a certain amount has also been going towards peak oil denial.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/feb/14/funding-climate-change-denial-thinktanks-network

    It’s only logical that some of this money goes towards paying people to disrupt websites and blogs that explore these issues so as to discredit and cast doubt on the ideas and data being examined. If I had millions of dollars to spend on denial/disruption of this type, it would be an insignificant part of my budget to hire a few dozen people to do this from home part time in their pajamas.

    Other than being paid, there is no reason to spend hours each day as a gadfly on a peak oil issues site….

    …In a way, paid blog disrupters are validation of Peak Oil theory. It’s only if Peak Oil is close and the need for adaptive strategies is growing clearer that so much money and energy needs to be spent obscuring it.”

    You are so close to the truth, Karen. But the reality is even more twisted.

    You are correct that the paid blog disruptors you speak of (aka trolls), are, in fact, paid. And you are correct that their appearance is a natural response of the system to possible undermining of the system that would result from wide spread knowledge of our intractable situation (that we are about to experience collapse).

    But here is the twisted part. The trolls are not outside disruptors. They are paid by, and work for, the house!

    The peak oil “movement” itself is a fictional creation, designed to defuse the energy of true believers and information seekers, while, at the very same time, discrediting the very movement they started. Just like the climate science denial movement, it was a fraud from the beginning. In the case of the peak oil issue, it was even more urgent that the truth be suppressed.

    Long before the peak oil issue could gain much public awareness, sites like The Oil Drum (TOD) were created by the oil industry/government (CIA) in order to define and frame the argument before it could grow organically. When the 2008 oil spike got people curious, (TOD) was there to intercept them with propaganda, using sophisticated psyops techniques derived from social psychology.

    Peakoilbarrel (POB) is the direct offspring of (TOD), resulting from oil industry/CIA budget cuts and downsizing after the initial disinformation effort was so successful and public interest waned.

    The notion that industry might pay trolls is an uncomfortable, but acceptable meme. Even the industry allows people to believe this because it a safe idea that soft-pedals and obscures a much darker truth.

    The real truth (that the trolls are working for the sites, and that the sites themselves are a sham employing psyops mind control techniques) is basically unthinkable to most people. Yet, the Snowden documents would seem to confirm that the unthinkable is true:

    https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014/02/24/jtrig-manipulation/

    What do you think?

    —Futilitist”

    ———————————

    Anyway, I don’t know what she thinks because she removed my one comment from her otherwise comment free blog. Oh well. I don’t know for sure yet what this indicates, but sometimes not responding, is, in a way, responding after all.

    I am not here to deceive you in any way. I actually want your help to expose deception.

    Sorry about the length of this post.

    Being able to trust anyone in the virtual world is always a delicate thing. So I am trying to put my cards on the table. That is why I shared my post to Karen with you. Please also take a look at the little incident that got me banned for life at TOD.

    Here is the readers digest version:

    http://futilitist.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-cat-in-john-michael-greers-kitchen.html

    And here is the unedited, original version:

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9433#comments_top

    Please feel free to ask me anything.

    I need your help to research banning patterns. I tried googling JR at TOD, and it turned up nothing. What was your handle at TOD?

    —Futilitist

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