The Grand Delusion – Sept. 9th, 2014

The Grand Delusion – Sept. 9th, 2014


This is the best I could do showing trends in oil consumption over the last decade. It is fairly simple, I hope, to understand demand and where it comes from by looking at these numbers. I started with the spreadsheet of oil consumption from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2014.

I sorted the list from the greatest increase in barrels per day from 2003 to 2013. So the countries at the bottom of the list in yellow are all using much less oil then they were 10 years ago. Uzbekistan is the only country in this group that is neither European nor industrialized. Or maybe it is. I know very little about Uzbekistan.

At the top of the list, I separated major oil producers/exporters from the field and color-coded them blue. These countries will not be drawing oil from the rest of the world anytime soon.

I compressed about 30 countries and regions in the middle of the list into “All Other Countries.”

This leaves us with only China and India as significant individual contributors to demand growth. Brazil is the only strange case. It basically is right on the cusp every year of being either a net exporter or importer. They apparently swap some of their heavy crude for sweet crude from West Africa because of their overall refinery setups. I arbitrarily left it in with China and India.






So we have the most dynamic, westernized, industrialized countries reducing their demand through recession, technology and efficiciency. Their wages and disposable income have flat-lined so basically they can’t afford $100 oil and are coping with that. Growth has and will continue to suffer in these countries with $100+ oil, but they are adapting.

Next we have a bunch of basically overpopulated, Middle-Eastern, Gulf-States rolling with dollars and giving gas away free to their huge, young, unemployed populations. Saudi Arabia uses 1.5 million barrels per day just to desalinate water. Who knows how long this party will last.

But of the remaining countries, China and India have increased demand more than all the others combined. They have been building roads, buying cars, and clearly buying gas in a decade that coincided with the price of oil quadrupling. Their economies continue to grow at a record pace, and it is the rising incomes that allow them to outbid Americans for the juice. China also reported only uses 20 percent of its oil for transportation. It is mostly to fill in gaps in electricity production. Scary.

The key here, in my opinion, is that production doesn’t really matter as much as both exports and who is going to be buying those exports. Brazil is always looked to for future “deepwater, unconventional oil production” expansion, but if their domestic consumption is going to be rising just as fast, it is irrelevant to anyone’s geo-economic strategic outlook. Similarly, the reality is that North America could potentially be energy independent. I would have thought this far-fetched 3 years ago, but I have to admit I’ve become more optimistic about this for several reasons I’ll get into later.

Currently we only get 2 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf (1.4 mbpd from Saudi) and another 2.5 mbpd or so from North and West Africa, Columbia, Venezuela, and Russia. Why are we so committed to the Middle East with not just the US Navy but our entire defense structure when 18 out of 20 million barrels per day of exports from the region go mainly to East Asia and partially to Europe? Think about it.

Why do we let Israel and Saudi Arabia call all the shots?


Obama Lays Out Broad Strategy for Years of War Against ISIS
White House Denies ‘Mission Creep’ as War Expands – Sept. 9th, 2014

Sleeping With the Devil (2004)

The Rise of China vs. The Logic of Strategy (2012)

185 Replies to “The Grand Delusion – Sept. 9th, 2014”

  1. “Currently we only get 2 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf…. Why are we so committed to the Middle East”

    Because… oil is fungible, global markets and finance, supply chains, Israel, military industrial complex, other power elite interests, fear, grudges, habit, stuff. Funny, maybe you’re the first one to ask.

  2. We (us and the interests who run our show and set priorities) depend on various countries and global systems/interconnections that depend on M.E. oil and stability more than we ourselves may depend on it at the moment (real or imagined). We need some semblance of world order and predictability (real and imagined) necessitating strong influence and persuasion (real or imagined), in order to hold our own arrangements together.

    Really I don’t know. I’m thinking out loud.

    [Note to self: In the movie version John Kerry will be played by Jason Robards.]

  3. “Why do we let Israel and Saudi Arabia call all the shots?”

    This is the soon to be $64 Trillion question now isn’t it? Perhaps the US/Israel proxy ISIS will succeed in toppling the House of Saud and bringing that oil into the fold without the necessary ongoing expense of supported various faux-Monarchies. Doubtful the real Queen (Elizabeth, not Barak) is as expensive a facade as sheiks, princes and their attendant harems and vices.

    But, the short answer is that the US Government and the idiot-bastard sheep are committed to the ME because the US Government and it’s many dual-citizen minions are committed to Israel which in turn has gone full-retard Zionist for a Greater Israel – lebensraum.

    Make no mistake, there will be blood and lots of it. That sign post ahead, in Hebrew, says “Highway to Hell”.

    Europe is fucked in ways it hasn’t seen since the Dark Ages. The Germans will become militarized again. Panzer fuel won’t be an issue this time.

    Who’s in your tribe? Best figure that one out tout de suite.

  4. Bill Burr is very funny. He’s gonna take a lot of flak at some point for his realist jokes on hitting women, though. Possibly a career-breaker.

  5. nice summary of the 9/11 evidence by paul craig roberts linked by orlov on his blog. see/hear especially the richard gage interview stuff. that is, if you still have an open mind to the evidence.

  6. meanwhile, on topic, what are “we” really doing in the MENA, where are those silly weapons of mass destruction, still hiding out there in the desert, did Saddam, Mullamar and Osama’s stand-in really have to die for our sins, etc.?

    and please tell me why we are doing all this police action “protecting” a region that only supplies 20% of our oil consumption, with the rest going to our global economic competitors in Asia? how can this be helpful to US interests? whom exactly is behind US interests? the Fed? World Trade Bank? Goldman-Sucks? are “we” playing global cop to keep Chindia-Japan from cashing in our our debt? maybe it’s psyops on those squinty eyed ones? “see? we still playie nice and keep oil flowing. now, you keep playie nice with us and honor our debt.” humm….

  7. i wonder how US public opinion will be affected by knowing that ISIS was formed by US CIA action/funding in Syria? doesn’t that make our own foreign policy cupable for creating the monster we are now supposed to fear? assuming, of couse, my hunch is correct. go team USA!

  8. @JR,

    I’m planning to use a few of your recent figures in my resources class. There are about 15 undergraduates. I have them scared shitless, as they should be, and they hang on every word I speak. It’s nice to see such awareness in these students. I’m betting the graduate students will be moron in denial, as they are more invested in the current system and want the status quo to continue so they can attempt a professional career. I only have bad news for them, so they’ll hate me, since they’re usually in the anger stage of denial. all logical and stupid. we’ll see.

    anyway, I hope you don’t mind. i’ll quote you as “Zulu Kilo Productions”.

  9. too bad dale evans died before dick. she would have had him stuffed, like roy, trigger and bullet. nelly bell didn’t need to be stuffed, just drain the crank case.

  10. good gawd, my 99 y.o. mother has outlived all these folks. when she enters a room, it’s a safe bet she’s the oldest one in there. (i have to admit, she does seem to be slowing down some, ever since her doctor died.)

  11. “Uzbekistan is the only country in this group that is neither European nor industrialized. Or maybe it is. I know very little about Uzbekistan.”

    When I was there in the late 90’s, IIRC, the Koreans built Daewoos there, the Russians built a mid-range domestic airliner there and I think the Swedes were building fiber optic infrastructure for a digital silk road from Europe to China. With the Koreans “help”, I think they skipped over copper pair telco buildout and went straight to building out cell nodes saving any copper or fiber for back haul of the cell traffic.

    There was a decent tourist industry for the old silk road history from western europe, particularly into Samarkand. Lots of Dutch on the flight out of Amsterdam. National airlines flew 767’s maintained by Lufthansa. I asked before I booked.

    Money laundering is still big too I hear.

  12. Remus, you should give us the much shorter list of where you haven’t been. my god, i mean Uzbekistan? i could only guess somewhere in cental asia, between russia and the black, caspian seas.

  13. JR, thanks for the address and willingness to assist.

    at the end of yesterday’s lecture, a couple of students, probably polysci majors, were trying to bargain (in KR lingo) with my message. after some open discussion, i told them that George Lukas’ Starwars has some great lines that are pertinent, like Darth Vader’s ominous warning to “prepare to meet you distiny”. that got a few nervous laughs.

  14. Doom, UZ was one of the few places I went of my own volition. HI is in that mix. The rest were as a military brat or active duty. I’m certain your travels as PhD-at-Large trump my meager jaunts.

  15. my best one to date was the south pole, via LC-130 and courtesy of the USAF. just me, my boss and about 50,000 gallons of JP-8 in the main cabin. strictly a no smoking flight.

  16. Rode in my share C-130s and KC-135’s – the latter to/.from SE Asia, the former in-country back in the day. 50,000 gallons is a whole lot of fuel/weight at what, ~6.7lbs/gal for JP-8? We had the wet thrust KC-135s for max capacity take-offs. They drop like a rock if you cut the water injection too early. I know this first hand.

  17. Remus, it was a big tank. all through the flight, one of the crew kept coming aft and checking the electrical outlets with a flashlight. it was without a doubt the coldest i have ever been. we were in full antarctic survival gear, including our “bunny boots”. it was the only time my feet got cold in them, and that included the summit of Erebus at 15,000 feet. we weren’t moving around too much, and they weren’t trying to keep the heat up. definitely a no frills flight.

  18. i’m working on an early warning. hey, if you want to see collective human stupidity in progress (i don’t know, maybe you’re fed up watchin this stuff, but…) here’s some “frog in the hot tub” action from California:

    Califorgonia used to be a beautiful state, a real bread basket for the USA (i wuz born and spent the first 22 years of my life there), now it’s moron like a basket case. they forgot about long-term climate change (prolonged, severe drought) although the theme is featured in many of the nation’s national parks and monuments throughout the southwest. wot, they thought “this time, it’s different”? american exceptionalism? they’re gonna mostly be gone somewhere else, without too much exception. maybe wandering around in search of the missing anasazi people.

  19. well, i really liked jhk’s piece today. if i was a guy in my 20’s today, i think that running over and joining isis might be an attractive proposition, bettern’ working in walmart or mickeyd’s anyway. i guess.

    isis or the us military? what a fucking choice.

  20. regarding the homeland security article posted by JR, when you base the creation of a government department upon an obvious false flag perpetrated by the same mendacious group in still power, then it should come as no great surprise that the trumped-up external threat (foreign terrorists) is not the target. the theme of this group is extortion abroad, surveillance and suppression of dissent at home. not all that different from the themes the boys (and girls) were fighting in WWII. this time, the fascists are right here. you can see them and the progress towards their goals on the MSM. it’s a process.

  21. yeah, to be young, jacked up on testosterone, and dead. i wonder how many german soliders in those old rally photos made it past 1945? Ten, twenty percent?

  22. “it’s a bummer to lose” – huh, who ended up with bmw’s, oktoberfest, 6 weeks of vacation/year, best beer on earth, strongest currency in europe, best porn ever, arguably the best fed healthiest population the world has ever known…etc? you call that losing?

    anyhoo, the post ww2 show is just about over. time for everybody, even the germans, to pack it up and go home. i guess.

  23. for its’ efforts, the us did get to burn most of the oil for the last 70 or so years; so there’s that. i guess.

  24. I hear the relative comparison of German and Russian (Soviet) engineering also applies to their respective porn.

  25. yeah, you can be quietly enveloped by german porn. you can only be hit on the head with a monkey wrench by russian porn. i’d say.

  26. so if the new iPads can be transformed into laptops, then it raises the obvious question of why buy them if a laptop is what you want in the first place? how about an iPhone that stretches into an iPad that can then be made into a laptop? or a laptop that can be folded up into an iPhone? same difference.

  27. yeah, a guy who appreciates a good hand job is not just making three broadcast text messages and purchasing tickets for tonight’s game at the same time as he’s winning grand theft auto with his local network of peeps. IOW, a real man.

  28. so, we’re creeping ever closer to a workable prototype fusion reactor. i think my amigo also wants to hold the world record for cheapest made working fusion reactor. (he’s too old to be the youngest, but maybe he can be the oldest inventor?)

  29. this guy, joe witt, should legally change his name to “witless”, because as an idiot, he completely misses the important point Dr. Pianka is trying to make. Dr. Pianka is also not Dr. Doom. that’s me, idiot breath joe.

    “Doctor Doom, Eric Pianka, Receives Standing Ovation from Texas Academy of Science

    Jonathan Witt April 3, 2006 3:15 PM | Permalink

    The following is excerpted from “Meeting Doctor Doom” by Forrest Mims, Chairman of the Environmental Science Section of the Texas Academy of Science:

    … I watched in amazement as a few hundred members of the Texas Academy of Science rose to their feet and gave a standing ovation to a speech that enthusiastically advocated the elimination of 90 percent of Earth’s population by airborne Ebola. The speech was given by Dr. Eric R. Pianka (Fig. 1), the University of Texas evolutionary ecologist and lizard expert who the Academy named the 2006 Distinguished Texas Scientist.
    Something curious occurred a minute before Pianka began speaking. An official of the Academy approached a video camera operator at the front of the auditorium and engaged him in animated conversation. The camera operator did not look pleased as he pointed the lens of the big camera to the ceiling and slowly walked away.

    This curious incident came to mind a few minutes later when Professor Pianka began his speech by explaining that the general public is not yet ready to hear what he was about to tell us.

    Because of many years of experience as a writer and editor, Pianka’s strange introduction and the TV camera incident raised a red flag in my mind. Suddenly I forgot that I was a member of the Texas Academy of Science and chairman of its Environmental Science Section. Instead, I grabbed a notepad so I could take on the role of science reporter.
    One of Pianka’s earliest points was a condemnation of anthropocentrism, or the idea that humankind occupies a privileged position in the Universe. He told a story about how a neighbor asked him what good the lizards are that he studies. He answered, “What good are you?”

    Pianka hammered his point home by exclaiming, “We’re no better than bacteria!”

    Pianka then began laying out his concerns about how human overpopulation is ruining the Earth. He presented a doomsday scenario in which he claimed that the sharp increase in human population since the beginning of the industrial age is devastating the planet. He warned that quick steps must be taken to restore the planet before it’s too late.

    Saving the Earth with Ebola

    Professor Pianka said the Earth as we know it will not survive without drastic measures. Then, and without presenting any data to justify this number, he asserted that the only feasible solution to saving the Earth is to reduce the population to 10 percent of the present number.

    He then showed solutions for reducing the world’s population in the form of a slide depicting the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. War and famine would not do, he explained. Instead, disease offered the most efficient and fastest way to kill the billions that must soon die if the population crisis is to be solved.

    Pianka then displayed a slide showing rows of human skulls, one of which had red lights flashing from its eye sockets.

    AIDS is not an efficient killer, he explained, because it is too slow. His favorite candidate for eliminating 90 percent of the world’s population is airborne Ebola ( Ebola Reston ), because it is both highly lethal and it kills in days, instead of years. However, Professor Pianka did not mention that Ebola victims die a slow and torturous death as the virus initiates a cascade of biological calamities inside the victim that eventually liquefy the internal organs.

    After praising the Ebola virus for its efficiency at killing, Pianka paused, leaned over the lectern, looked at us and carefully said, “We’ve got airborne 90 percent mortality in humans. Killing humans. Think about that.”

    With his slide of human skulls towering on the screen behind him, Professor Pianka was deadly serious. The audience that had been applauding some of his statements now sat silent.

    After a dramatic pause, Pianka returned to politics and environmentalism. But he revisited his call for mass death when he reflected on the oil situation.

    “And the fossil fuels are running out,” he said, “so I think we may have to cut back to two billion, which would be about one-third as many people.” So the oil crisis alone may require eliminating two-third’s of the world’s population.

    How soon must the mass dying begin if Earth is to be saved? Apparently fairly soon, for Pianka suggested he might be around when the killer disease goes to work. He was born in 1939, and his lengthy obituary appears on his web site.

    When Pianka finished his remarks, the audience applauded. It wasn’t merely a smattering of polite clapping that audiences diplomatically reserve for poor or boring speakers. It was a loud, vigorous and enthusiastic applause.

    Questions for Dr. Doom

    Then came the question and answer session, in which Professor Pianka stated that other diseases are also efficient killers.

    The audience laughed when he said, “You know, the bird flu’s good, too.” They laughed again when he proposed, with a discernable note of glee in his voice that, “We need to sterilize everybody on the Earth.”

    After noting that the audience did not represent the general population, a questioner asked, “What kind of reception have you received as you have presented these ideas to other audiences that are not representative of us?”

    Pianka replied, “I speak to the converted!”

    Pianka responded to more questions by condemning politicians in general and Al Gore by name, because they do not address the population problem and “…because they deceive the public in every way they can to stay in power.”

    He spoke glowingly of the police state in China that enforces their one-child policy. He said, “Smarter people have fewer kids.” …

    With this, the questioning was over. Immediately almost every scientist, professor and college student present stood to their feet and vigorously applauded the man who had enthusiastically endorsed the elimination of 90 percent of the human population. Some even cheered. Dozens then mobbed the professor at the lectern to extend greetings and ask questions. It was necessary to wait a while before I could get close enough to take some photographs (Fig. 1).

    I was assigned to judge a paper in a grad student competition after the speech. On the way, three professors dismissed Pianka as a crank. While waiting to enter the competition room, a group of a dozen Lamar University students expressed outrage over the Pianka speech.

    Yet five hours later, the distinguished leaders of the Texas Academy of Science presented Pianka with a plaque in recognition of his being named 2006 Distinguished Texas Scientist. When the banquet hall filled with more than 400 people responded with enthusiastic applause, I walked out in protest.

    Corresponding with Dr. Doom

    Recently I exchanged a number of e-mails with Pianka. I pointed out to him that one might infer his death wish was really aimed at Africans, for Ebola is found only in Central Africa. He replied that Ebola does not discriminate, kills everyone and could spread to Europe and the the Americas by a single infected airplane passenger.

    In his last e-mail, Pianka wrote that I completely fail to understand his arguments. So I did a check and found verification of my interpretation of his remarks on his own web site. In a student evaluation of a 2004 course he taught, one of Professor Pianka’s students wrote, “Though I agree that convervation [sic] biology is of utmost importance to the world, I do not think that preaching that 90% of the human population should die of ebola [sic] is the most effective means of encouraging conservation awareness.” (Go here and scroll down to just before the Fall 2005 evaluation section near the end.)

    Yet the majority of his student reviews were favorable, with one even saying, ” I worship Dr. Pianka.”

    The 45-minute lecture before the Texas Academy of Science converted a university biology senior into a Pianka disciple, who then published a blog that seriously supports Pianka’s mass death wish.

    Dangerous Times
    Let me now remove my reporter’s hat for a moment and tell you what I think. We live in dangerous times. The national security of many countries is at risk. Science has become tainted by highly publicized cases of misconduct and fraud.

    Must now we worry that a Pianka-worshipping former student might someday become a professional biologist or physician with access to the most deadly strains of viruses and bacteria? I believe that airborne Ebola is unlikely to threaten the world outside of Central Africa. But scientists have regenerated the 1918 Spanish flu virus that killed 50 million people. There is concern that small pox might someday return. And what other terrible plagues are waiting out there in the natural world to cross the species barrier and to which scientists will one day have access?

    Meanwhile, I still can’t get out of my mind the pleasant spring day in Texas when a few hundred scientists of the Texas Academy of Science gave a standing ovation for a speaker who they heard advocate for the slow and torturous death of over five billion human beings. …”

  30. hey, i’ve said it for a long time now…pray for plague. i think that guy owes me some royalties…or something, a baloney sandwich will suffice.

  31. james brown, king of soul, is dead. those groovy go-go girls are pushing 80, wear depends, and might be using walkers to get around by now, assuming they’re still alive. life is cruel that way.

  32. unfair to use google or the wiki.

    it’s like cheating on a test by writing on your hands or nowadays, bringing your iPad/iPhone to class, using the free Wifi to connect to the internet, and pulling down the answers via Google.

    well, iffn Google and Yahoo, etc. are not going to do us much good when the grids go down. besides, who cares if you can fetch trivia answers at the speed of light if the cooling ponds up at Vermont Yankee stop working because the grid goes down up there and the back-ups run out of diesel?

    or how about all the nuke techs get ebola from the lunchroom workers and start throwing up blood on the control panels? somebody should make a movie, quick.

  33. of course, now orlov has jumped onto the ebola plague bandwagon. you really should sue for damages, dave. maybe threaten to take dimitry’s boat, or something.

  34. ya know, i was just thinking to myself last night how it is that like 80% of any woman’s appeal sits in her ass cheeks.

  35. i very much approve of this latest trend of women going to buy milk and eggs in their yoga pants. most (many? under 50? i’m showing my age? not sure?) women look real good in them. some women should just stick to mumu’s and burlap bags. i guess.

  36. GB, thought of your funny (cause it’s so true?) comment when reading this guy’s comment over at cluborlov:

    Dave Pollard said…
    “When I worked in Emergency Preparedness I got to see some interesting DHS simulations that suggested that, if/when a pandemic becomes airborne, shutting airports and other attempts at isolation will be futile. It will be like trying to plug holes in a sieve.

    I also learned that some pandemics, such as the Spanish Flu, actually paradoxically killed those with the strongest, not the weakest, immune systems — it was actually the body’s ferocious reaction to a multi-pronged assault on the body’s cells that killed people, far more than the disease itself. Given the epidemic of autoimmune (hyperactive immune system) diseases in the West already, such a pandemic would/will be bad news for us indeed.”

    ooops….so maybe this time, it’s different?

  37. sorry, but i can’t imagine being nagged by two heads at once. i mean i can, but don’t want to subject myself to more than one at a time. one’s plenty enough, too.

    i mean, that action could carry over into the bedroom, where one head is doing one thing, and the other is nagging or bitching about something, my god. good thing there aren’t too many of those.

  38. Not a medical pro or expert by any means, but I can’t help but think that there is a significant psychological factor in the autoimmune/hyperactive immune system overreactions to disease/injury/infection. Generally speaking, fear makes things worse, or so I believe.

  39. “the only thing we have to fear, is ebola itself.” or something to that effect.

    the survival odds are about the same as roulette. put it all on red or black. spin the wheel. the hospitals just function to isolate and to make the patient’s last days as comfortable as practical. the rest is up to your immune system and ebola.

  40. nice summary from OFW:

    Gail Tverberg says:
    October 14, 2014 at 7:38 am

    “In the past, we have mostly added to energy resources, not replaced them. We are still using biomass–in fact more than ever with ethanol. We are still using coal–the largest amount every. We are still using hydroelectric. So the idea of “replacing” has never really happened in the past.

    The issue we are talking about is collapse. In many ways it is not the same as inadequate food for rising population, which was the Malthusian concern. It is more like the Collapse of the Former Soviet Union and an unending version of the US depression.

    The situation with oil is different from what most people expect. What happens is recent high oil prices puts a squeeze on the world economy, leading to lower production of the final goods and services people buy (but leads to more intermediate costs, related to pollution control, higher cost of extraction, etc). Lower production of final goods leads to lower inflation-adjusted wages, and lower ability to incur debt to purchase goods such as new homes and cars. The price of all commodities collapses, making their production not economic. (This is like the Depression in the 1930s, except we don’t have a way out this time.) There was a big run-up in debt in the “roaring 20s.” Part of the problem then, as now, was a collapse in this debt bubble. It was possible to get out of the Depression through lots of borrowing and World War II, together with the availability of cheap fossil fuels. We could put huge numbers of citizens to work, with the benefit of cheap fossil fuels.

    I don’t see this option for escape now.”

  41. i think run is what nicole foss (stoneleigh) over at TAE has done. she’s gone silent, living with some guy in his “moron sustainable” (as nothing is truly sustainable) village on the south island of new zealand. i therefore surmise that she has now permanently left her husband/significant other (and family) on their farm in canada. at least, that’s what it looks like. i guess all that world touring with TAE sponsorship came with a personal cost. hey, if she’s happy, that’s what counts, eh?

    now gail T has picked up the message nicole used to champion, slightly modified.

  42. wot? it’s like no one has had an original thought since the bard and lewis carol? i’m left to wonder if western civ had an earlier demise than is widely appreciated.

  43. doom,

    i mean really, do you really believe in this bullshit? someone needs to renew a contract or something, that’s all.

  44. i’m convinced all efforts at fusion confinement at high pressure and temperature are doomed to fail. and, they’re dern expensive, too. lockheed is just looking for suckers, err, i mean investors, and are name branding, standing on the shoulders of giants like kelly.

  45. the USAF wanted a fighter-bomber version of the blackbird. only one problem: manuverability

    “What is the minimum turning radius of an SR-71 Blackbird at cruising speed (Mach 3.2) and altitude (80,000 feet)? I’ve heard that if an SR-71 were to cross the Pacific coast over San Francisco and pull a hard turn to the right, it would return over Seattle.”

  46. sounds about right to me.

    from: Violence, infectious disease and climate change contributed to Indus civilization collapse

    “As the environment changed, the exchange network became increasingly incoherent. When you combine that with social changes and this particular cultural context, it all worked together to create a situation that became untenable,” she said.

    The results of the study are striking, according to Robbins Schug, because violence and disease increased through time, with the highest rates found as the human population was abandoning the cities. However, an even more interesting result is that individuals who were excluded from the city’s formal cemeteries had the highest rates of violence and disease. In a small ossuary southeast of the city, men, women, and children were interred in a small pit. The rate of violence in this sample was 50 percent for the 10 crania preserved, and more than 20 percent of these individuals demonstrated evidence of infection with leprosy.

    Robbins Schug said lessons from the Indus Civilization are applicable to modern societies.

    “Human populations in semi-arid regions of the world, including South Asia, currently face disproportionate impacts from global climate change,” the researchers wrote. “The evidence from Harappa offers insights into how social and biological challenges impacted past societies facing rapid population growth, climate change and environmental degradation. Unfortunately, in this case, increasing levels of violence and disease accompanied massive levels of migration and resource stress and disproportionate impacts were felt by the most vulnerable members of society.”

  47. yeah, i read lotr and stuff when i was a kid. i think i saw the first movie. if i remember right, it really sucked…

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