Drill, Baby, Drill!!!

The Shale Revolution is like Saturn, it devours its own children.

Francisco_de_Goya,_Saturno_devorando_a_su_hijo_(1819-1823)

oilstates.r4

140 Replies to “Drill, Baby, Drill!!!”

  1. Unsurprisingly, OK never really had a “peak” to speak of. I’d suspect that if you traced rig count in OK with the price, well, you get the idea.

  2. Would Texan landholders get more $ for rigs on their properties? If so, maybe companies only drill there when they can get finance ergo rig count is more volatile.

  3. Yarra, it is similar in OK. There’s a drilling lease for the land owner and I believe a percentage on a producing wellhead. This even applies to tribal lands, which OK has a lot of. And there are an awful lot of over-leveraged drillers.

    I wanted to post a link to a chart on leveraged drillers, but I can’t find it now. Anyway, OK has a lot of drilling/fracking for gas (and associated geological disturbances – ahem), whereas N Dakota is shale as are parts of TX.

    It’s also my understanding that there are more wells in shale than in a conventional field.

  4. You may or may not like Chris Martenson but he had some good stuff lately on the shale boondoggle.
    UR, there aren’t a shit-tin more wells, but they make MRC wells look like a one-spoke wheel.

  5. Maximum reservoir contact drilling. Like a horizontal fishbone of holes underground.
    The shale stuff was on the free side of the paywall.

  6. UR, didn’t they de-couple the swiss franc from the Euro and it shot up in value just the other day?

  7. Yep, hence my query up-thread.

    Ruble is a high risk buy in my view right now (disclosure – I am NOT in FX markets, other than my clients pay in US$ and we import just about everything fucking thing), but man o man, if I had a few spare $K laying around, I’d buy some and call it a Vegas weekend.

    A lot of soft currencies in that part of the world. It was a significant factor in me not investing in UZ back in the day. That and capital controls, BUT, given that the repatriation of overseas profits to the US is so, well, unprofitable these days, I probably could have done a plan B for the capital controls. Soft currency, not so much. Oh, and majority ownership by a UZ citizen or entity. One step from nationalization in my view, well, until I got the right palms greased.

    And my Russian would probably be passable by now as it was the official language back then, even though the USSR was gone. The declaration forms were in Russian. WE were betting the layout of the English version matched the Russian one because we had to fill out the Russian one for customs in UZ – there weren’t enough English (or Dutch) ones to go around. Plane was full of Dutch on holiday to Samarkand.

    Another thought. If the Euro takes a nose dive into the shallow end, I have to guess all my Philharmonics numismatic value will bump if they stop minting. Long shot for now though. Of course, value of the metal they are made of got a goose on the swiss franc/Euro floor going away. Viva la clusterfuck.

  8. Good link Yarra, thanks. Only the big boys will be left standing after this I suspect and even they may have a few bruises to show for it.

  9. this AM I read that guest article on Martenson’s web site via the UY link provided (tanks UY). i recall davefairtex from the commentary over at TAE back in the daz when Stoneleigh was still around (now incognito, farming with new BF in NZ).

    it’s a safe call to say that “fracking is fucked”. i predict (a no brainer, really) that this is their peak moment, and we will be seeing the steep backside of the fracking bonanza soon, with no rebounds. i think the oil sands will be next. maybe for the best, as both types of operations are so harmful to the environment.

    go Keystone–pipeline to nowhere!

  10. yes, i think fracking is fucked. but i think anyone who knew anything got what they wanted out of it. all the really good plays were played, and some people had some fun and fucked some hookers, and stuff, etc. i know that that’s all i ever ask out of life…

    i think oil sand may have another life…but i’m never really sure about anything…ever…

  11. it’s pretty obvious what happened. one of that unfortunate plane’s comrade bombers was above and dropping his load, so to speak, and one of the stray bombs hit the left wing right at the intersection with the fuselage. must have been fatal to that crew.

  12. the most obvious problem with transsexuals, amongst many, is that they never, no matter how hard they may try, get the waist to hip ratio correct. i think.

  13. Yep, art class 101, figure drawing, hip to shoulders ratio, although I believe there is some surgery to correct that, too.

  14. february’s quote of the month is early: “Discussing shale is like taking a history lesson; it is about something that was, and will never be again.”

    Doug Leighton comment at PeakOilBarrel re: Oilfields Estimated Production Costs ($ 2008)

    That is 2008 data. Since then production costs have increased by about 35%. At $50.00 oil a lot of those fields have already been priced out of the market. By the time prices have recovered to the $60 range (late 2016) a lot of those fields will be gone. Discussing shale is like taking a history lesson; it is about something that was, and will never be again.

  15. interesting, especially that the weights of all those Pt-Ir KG weights had diverged so much over the years. if that guy had dropped that Si-28 sphere, it probably would have shattered. the chick would have lost her job. in an earlier time, she and the dude would have lost their heads.

    i did not know Lavoisier was beheaded. sounds like he had Newton’s job as tax collector, an unpopular job most anytime, anywhere.

  16. per Gail’s interview:

    “Suppose you have a derivatives problem. If you have a derivatives problem and you have to go back against depositors, your depositors are things like companies that are making payroll payments. So, the big danger is that these payroll funds will be taken in this process of taking the money away to try to get enough money to fund the derivatives problem. Or, they might not be derivatives problems. They might be other kinds of problems that are putting banks under.

    If you start taking the money from the oil companies that they were going to use to pay their employees or if you take the money from electricity companies that they were going to use to buy coal or that they were going to use to pay their employees, you have a very bad effect on the economy, which has nothing to do with the shape of the oil depletion curve.

    As I said, the big issue I see is an affordability issue. I don’t see oil prices bouncing back up again, or certainly not bouncing up very long, for very far. So, for oil production, this is basically the beginning of the end…what we’re seeing is the beginning of Peak Oil, basically. The oil production will actually permanently turn down at this point because we will not be able to get it back up, and because of all the financial situations coming along.”

    somehow, i think it’s fitting and appropos for a woman to be bring up the issue that it: “will actually permanently turn down at this point because we will not be able to get it back up”. worrisome, indeed.

  17. i think that gt, with her finance approach to peak oil forgets that money can be anything we want it to be. energy is what it is, and like everything else in the universe, we must produce as much entropy as we can…something like that.

  18. ya, have to extra nice to that one. hey, somebody (dave) please explain to me how events in gaza with the israelis causes the price of oil and gas to increase? where is the connect?

    wow, who could have seen that russian move coming? i mean, who could have known (C. Rice, ca. 2001). gonna be some cold euros over there soon.

  19. it’s interesting that the MSM will tolerate michael moore’s presence and commentary. of course, it is usually highly edited and made to cast him in the least favorable light.

    he calls snipers “cowards”, at least that’s what he was taught, way back when. i recall the japanese snipers used to hide in tree tops and pick off GIs as they passed. to counter that tactic, the american War in the Pacific began the first deliberate defoliation of entire islands. they still had to deal with those hidden underground.

    anywho, snipers are cowards, and so are drone operations that do the same cowardly acts. cowardly acts done on behalf of the real, big immoral cowards currently ruling and running things.

    http://time.com/3673233/michael-moore-amercian-sniper-chris-kyle/?xid=newsletter-brief

  20. Orlov channeling doom today:

    “Or take the Charlie Hebdo psy-ops in Paris, which, for anyone paying attention, was eerily reminiscent of the Boston Marathon bombing almost two years ago. Boston still hasn’t got rid of all of the idiotic “Boston strong” stickers (no, Boston was not destroyed by a few firecrackers and a few amputee actors bursting bags of fake blood to pretend that they just had a leg blown off). And now Paris is festooned with eerily similar “I am Charlie” stickers. Killing a handful of innocents is, of course, standard procedure: [a] few real atrocities help render the “conspiracy theory” version of the events unthinkable for anyone under imperial control (but that control is slipping away, and even a national leader—Turkey’s Erdogan—publicly declared that the event had been staged). Also similarly, the supposed perpetrators were summarily executed by the police before anyone could find out anything about them. It’s become quite clear by now that such events are being cooked up by the same bunch of not-terribly-creative hacks.”

  21. also in that post:

    “In the end, the wild whipsawing of the oil market, and the even wilder whipsawing of financial markets, currencies and the rolling bankruptcies of energy companies, then the entities that financed them, then national defaults of the countries that backed these entities, will in due course cause industrial economies to collapse. And without a functioning industrial economy crude oil would be reclassified as toxic waste. But that is still two or three decades off in the future.”

    note the agreement with Bif and dave. this is not gail’s prediction, which is anytime from now until about 2016-17.

    http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2015/01/whiplash.html#more

  22. eh, i still prefer the idea of kinda nutty extremist perps…even if they are somehow being set up as patsies by someone.

  23. timing, timing, timing…it always boils down to timing. when you think of my (and bif’s, i guess) calls (2024), gt’s (and doom’s?) calls (2016-2017) or do’s recent call (2034-2044), there’s really not that much difference. anything can happen at any time. my only real, hard core prediction, the one that i’ll bet real $ on, is that in less than 100 years, make that 50 years (timing), from today the earth’s human population will be well under 1 billion. you can take that to the bank…

    but, my notions always revolve around the idea that humans have one single overriding purpose, we must create as much entropy as we can, as fast as we can. so, there’s still a bunch of shit to be burned and fucked up in one fashion or another, so that’s what we’ll do. money is just a detail that can be worked out. i think.

  24. “gaza/isreal and the price of oil? is this a serious question, or are you fucking with me?”

    it’s a serious question. someone, maybe orlov, suggested a link.

  25. six to seven billion humans gone in 50, even 100 years. it’s an amazing number. at some point, with that many dead bodies, the sanitation goes sub-third world. no clean water => cholera epidemic. goes like a chain reaction, i guess.

    i got a hint of what that may look like. a few years back, i was approached by a lady scientist in need of some dates on sediments here in town. she told me that back in the 1800s, the Hawaiians were struck by an outbreak of smallpox, or it could have been the measles, forgot now. anyway, she was investigating a mass grave site. she said that the death rate was so high, the best the survivors could do was to bring the bodies down to the beach, maybe bury them in the sand in shallow graves. i told her accelerator radiocarbon on the bones was her best bet.

  26. gaza/isreal and the price of oil?

    not sure, probably because they’re in the middle east. anything in the middle east makes the markets spooky….something like that…maybe.

    it all comes down to the fact that some shit happens, and other shit doesn’t. i think.

  27. It is a bit embarrassing to have been concerned with the human problem all one’s life and find at the end that one has no more to offer by way of advice than ‘try to be a little kinder.’

    Aldus Huxley

    or, if your lucky enough to have positioned yourself correctly, even physical limits can be gimmicked, to an extent. i think.

    dave

  28. AH reminds me of my fifth grade teacher, a tower of a man. he never lost his temper with us, fortuneately. when we acted up, he would sometimes lean over, down to our standing level, and say calmy: “be courteous”.

  29. jim morrison did the right thing when he died at 27, or something like that. living past 50 is fucking stupid, i’d say.

  30. doom, i do really like extremely athletic women.

    remus, all those people make my dick shrivel…it’s pretty repulsive…

  31. yeah, if that’s a representative sample of our young adults, i wish our young people would emulate the japs…

  32. “yeah, if that’s a representative sample of our young adults, i wish our young people would emulate the japs…”

    if they did, there would be less fat asses in this world.

  33. from link above: “The downside? Oil drillers and refineries in states like Texas and North Dakota are likely to suffer from lower gas prices. Layoffs of thousands of workers have begun in recent weeks.”

    yup, but those recently layed off workers will now pay less to travel to the unemployment and social security offices. i’m sure those fuel savings will end up at macdonalds or the local 7-11. tricke down economics.

  34. sounds like a fancy description of SNAFU to me. all you need is unethical and immoral leadership run by sociopaths, und voila! Boston strong, je suis Charlie, 9-11 smells everywhere. oh my…

  35. Re Bardot: Yeah everybody looks the same at 80. Ha-ha. Octogenarian prune-face convergence, and then you die. Oh well.

    Hi everybody!

  36. No, Russia suffers, regroups, and then swarms, suffers great casualties, suffers, regroups, and then… etc. Contributes to the arts along the way. Suffers. Lives. Suffers.

  37. the upside of CIA-conspired terrorist false flags, moron employment for cops

    “France to Hire 2,600 Officers to Monitor 3,000 Terror Suspects”

    if i wuz french, i’d be demanding to know which 400 terror suspects don’t need a personal officer to monitor them.

  38. well, bif is here. where you been hiding?

    i’m not really diggin’ that “doobedoobedoo” shit that aw adds to the song. but that’s just me.

    getting ready to go shovel some snow. eh, no big deal.

  39. “the subtext to all of amy’s songs was “fuck you, i’m talented, but i don’t give a shit”. or to that effect.”

    Hmmm – I read “joni’s” – but that’s just me.

  40. Gary said…

    “The Dutch refused to send investigators for 4 months to the scene of MH17, saying it was “too dangerous”, meanwhile letting bodies rot, evidence be destroyed, etc. Turns out this was all political and probably part of the false flag operation. I saw an interview with the local militia, and they claimed to be able to guarantee investigators’ safety the whole time. The Dutch wouldn’t send investigators to the scene because they would supposedly have to “recognize” the DPR. So they used that as an excuse to violate all the standard practices of crash investigation. Had to keep up the narrative of “Putin” did it. Then they signed an agreement with Kiev govt. to keep findings secret.”

    sounds about right, for cowards and traitors.

    http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-time-machine-in-australia.html#more

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