History – First Draft 04.16.2015

A Shifting Narrative on Iran
Iran will always be the enemy

So now we arrive at 2015 and a former Israeli intelligence chief has openly said what most of the rest of the world has long known: Netanyahu is a liar when he talks about Iran. Concurrently, the P5+1 group of negotiators have concluded a marathon 18 months negotiation by achieving a framework agreement with Iran which will substantially diminish its ability to enrich uranium at all, will greatly reduce its stockpile and will also subject all of its research facilities to intrusive inspections. In return sanctions on Iran will slowly be lifted, but it should be observed that most of the major concessions were made by the Islamic Republic, where there is considerable pressure from the public to make Iran again a normal member of the international community…

…Sensing defeat, Netanyahu and his tame congressmen clearly decided a sharp change in direction would be necessary and, presumably guided by the warm and friendly hand of AIPAC, a new approach was concocted combining two essential elements. First, it was claimed that Iran cannot be trusted to abide by any agreement because, as Chief U.S. negotiator Wendy Sherman put it “deception” is in the Iranian leadership DNA. That would mean that Iran might appear to be going along with the agreement but it would secretly be manufacturing a weapon. Just exactly how that would take place under an intrusive inspections regime is not clear, but the idea is to plant the seed that Iranians are intrinsically deceitful and dangerous.

The second argument, which began to evolve before the framework agreement was announced and which not surprisingly has nothing to do with nuclear weapons, is that Iran is threatening and dangerous by virtue of its behavior beyond its nuclear program. Congressmen and pundits have begun to bleat that Iran “now dominates four Arab capitals” and it also “supports terrorism.” One op-ed writer who should know better has described the development of a new Persian Empire.

The first argument is sheer fantasy and racist to boot but the second argument, intended to shift the narrative in a new direction, is actually the more ridiculous. Iran has a struggling economy, a relatively weak military, and much of its outreach to Shi’a communities in neighboring states is in response to the hostility surrounding it engineered by the U.S., Israel and the Sunni ruled regimes in the Persian Gulf. Creating and exploiting a limited sphere of influence as a defensive measure is far from uniquely Iranian.

To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran
MARCH 26, 2015

Iran Framework Deal Reached, Officials Confirm
Talks Aimed at Finalizing Deal by End of June
by Jason Ditz, April 02, 2015


Oil_040115History – First Draft 2015


Saudi Arabia’s oil exports at the beginning of 2015 are 450,000 barrels per day (5%) lower than they were 2 and a half years ago. They are 1 million barrels per day ( 11%) lower than they were a decade ago in 2005.


The “Exceptional” U.S. Suffers Crushing Defeat in Debaltsevo
The Battle Behind the Fog of Propaganda

Additionally, the US-backed proxy-army saw many of its crack troops and top-notch units destroyed in the fighting leaving Kiev unable to continue the war without assistance from allies in the US or Europe. The full impact of the defeat will not be known until angry troops returning from the front amass on the streets of the Capital and demand Petro Poroshenko’s resignation. The Ukrainian President is responsible for the massacre at Debaltsevo. He was fully aware that his army faced encirclement but ordered them to remain in order to satisfy powerful right-wing elements in his government. The disaster is even more terrible due to the fact that it was entirely avoidable and achieved no strategic purpose at all. Extreme hubris frequently impacts outcomes on the battlefield. This was the case at Debaltsevo.

The debacle ensures that the bumbling president’s days are numbered. It’s nearly certain that he will either be replaced or hanged sometime in weeks ahead. He has already flown his family to safety out of the country, and there’s growing speculation that both Washington and the far-right nationalists who occupy the Security Services will insist on his removal. That paves the way for a second Ukrainian coup in less than a year, a grim reminder of the tragic failings of US policy in Ukraine.



Tuesday, Mar 31, 2015

Iran and six world powers will agree to continue negotiations in a new phase aimed at reaching a comprehensive accord by the end of June, officials say.

AP’s Jack Gillum reports that Hillary Rodham Clinton used multiple devices for email and mixed work and personal concerns at least once during her tenure as secretary of state.

The German carrier says its insurers are setting aside $300 million to deal with possible costs resulting from the Germanwings jet crash.

Dismayed over the slow pace of post-war reconstruction, Gaza Strip residents are returning to uninhabitable structures while they wait for promised aid to arrive.

Two distillers say economic development in their small town is being hampered by a law governing what can be marketed as “Tennessee Whiskey.”

On final day of Iran nuclear talks, U.S. puts the odds of a deal at 50-50

The self-imposed deadline for a framework deal on Iran’s nuclear program is midnight Tuesday, and State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf puts the odds of a deal at 50-50. And while there is some speculation that the talks in Lausanne, Switzerland, could continue into Wednesday, “March 31 is the deadline,” Harf told reporters. “It has to mean something. And the decisions don’t get easier after March 31.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who is rejoining the talks on Tuesday, put the odds of success considerably higher: “They are probably not 100 percent but you can never be 100 percent certain of anything.”
Source: VOA, Reuters

Airtsrike kills at least 40 at Yemeni refugee camp

An airstrike targeting Houthi rebels in north Yemen killed at least 40 people and wounded another 200 at a refugee camp on Monday. Yemen’s state news agencySaba, now controlled by Houthis, said Saudi planes had intended the bombs for a rebel camp nearby. Saudi military officials said they were trying to confirm what happened. “It could have been that the fighter jets replied to fire, and we cannot confirm that it was a refugee camp,” Brigadier General Ahmed Asseri said. A humanitarian worker said the strike hit a truck filled with Houthi fighters at the camp gate, killing nearby camp residents as well as fighters.
Source: Reuters, The New York Times

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan falls behind in vote count

An early vote count from Nigeria’s election has opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari ahead of President Goodluck Jonathan by two million votes. While the lead is formidable, many of the country’s large states in the south have not declared their results yet. A former military ruler whose defeat in the last election resulted in rioting that left 800 dead, Buhari has made fighting the Islamist militant group Boko Haram a centerpiece of his campaign. If Buhari wins, Jonathan would be Nigeria’s first incumbent to lose a presidential election.
Source: BBC News, Al Jazeera

60 Replies to “History – First Draft 04.16.2015”

  1. i didn’t know that the iranians called alexander the great, “alexander the devil”. i guess it makes perfect sense that they would, being from former persia, and like their ancestors, not used to getting the short end of the stick in foreign relations. i’m fairly certain that alexander’s conquest was a one-off affair. not too sure how the brits or the ottomans made out there, but the american’s recent “conquest” barely qualifies, and they used crassus’ head for a polo ball, and ate his army for lunch.

    oh, the humility!

  2. How you like me now – man dave, flashes of the white stripes. But, sound was too clean and the horns.

    Weird tho – I’ve been doing funk and soul all day. One of my clients reported a blown transformer due to weather, of course, no power – satellite office. I get the email – and for whatever reason, I’m thinking “boom laka-laka-laka, boom laka-laka-laka boom”.

    I hit the interwebs for some Sly and that set the tone for the rest of the day.

  3. on the saudi oil production and exports chart above, i note the following trends: 1997 – 2005, exports closely follow production but price is slowly climbing; 2005 – 2009, exports rise to moron closely follow production as oil prices rise sharply; 2010-2015, exports fall relative to production as prices recover from $45/barrel low to average of $100/barrel, thanks to QE until Q3 2014. i think the saudis were squeezing local consumption to make moron profits during the 2005-2009 period. since 2009, local consumption has risen as their population and local demand increase. it’s jeff brown’s export land model with a bit of local consumption squeeze in 2005-2009. now, they don’t risk further squeezes with ISIS on the loose or the house of saud will just hasten their own end.

  4. i’ve always wondered where all those different, brightly colored sodas come from…

    reminds me of this classic (to me) photo of a young chinese housewife in a new dress and heels in her new kitchen with all the modern appliances on display. out the open back door, the scene is industrial smokestacks and the sky is grey with air pollution. the housewife looks proud and the scene inside looks normal in every western aspect except she’s wearing a dust mask.

    maybe it was staged, but in china i don’t think so.

  5. cute blond joke:

    Two bowling teams, one of all Blondes and one of all Brunettes, charter a double-decker bus for a weekend bowling tournament in London.
    The Brunette team rides in the bottom of the bus.
    The Blonde team rides on the top level.
    The Brunette team down below is living it up having a great time, when one of them realizes she doesn’t hear anything from the Blondes upstairs.

    She decides to go up and investigate. When the Brunette reaches the top, she finds all the Blondes frozen in fear, staring straight-ahead at the road, and clutching the seats in front of them with white knuckles.

    She says, “What the heck’s goin’ on up here? We’re havin’ a grand time downstairs!” One of the Blondes looks up and says, “Yeah, but you’ve got a driver!”

  6. not enough cow bell dave. But it is a funky little tune and chiclet can sho ’nuff slide and gyrate around.

  7. “These people are playing with matches… I don’t think they understand the scope and scale of the wildfire they are flirting with. They are fucking around with a civil war that could last a decade and cause millions of deaths… and the sad truth is that 95% of the problems we have in this country could be solved tomorrow, by noon… simply by dragging 100 people out in the street and shooting them in the fucking head.”


  8. yeah doom, I’ve been considering picking up an acoustic guitar and getting blisters on my fingers again. I haven’t touched a 6-string since the 60’s. I last picked up an electric bass in ’72. Acoustic guitars and harmonicas are at least EMP proof. I might even learn to read music!

  9. “…and the sad truth is that 95% of the problems we have in this country could be solved tomorrow, by noon… simply by dragging 100 people out in the street and shooting them in the fucking head.”

    sisyphean…for every 100 you might shoot, there’s 110 waiting to take their place…

  10. dave, the key is which 100. Given the stench of rot, decay and corruption that is getting harder and harder for even the dead to ignore, no, I don’t think there are 110 to take their place and most certainly not with the juice the right 100 have.

    dave old son, you’re sounding defeatist. Fear is a double-edged sword.

  11. nah…for every bush, clinton or cheney, etcetcetc, you may take out, there’s at least 10 christie’s, obama’s and kerry’s etcetcetc, lined up to take their place. they’re in the wood work, part of the air we breath…just waiting their turns…

  12. Well, once again we disagree. You might find an eager like-minded butt to keep the seat warm, but enough disruptions that close to the top of the pyramid will be felt and cascade.

    Some folks just need to be reminded of their own mortality.

  13. Oh yeah, I know of the brick wall. And I think we are getting close to that being the only thing in the room. The question is, who we gonna put up against the wall and have a little come-to-Jesus with?

    We are rapidly approaching a critical mass of people with nothing to lose dave.

  14. personally, i think bush and hillary clinton are as interchangeable as kerry and cheney. they’re all puppets that do the bidding of their masters, those holding the power (= influence) and the “real wealth”, not fiat currency.

    as an aside, ever wonder why this country only issues fiat up to $100? they used to issue, $1000, $10,000 bills in the past, but no moron.

  15. “Japan’s population is forecast to drop to some 86.7 million in 2060 with the proportion of people aged 65 or over estimated to reach nearly 40% of the total, the government has warned.”

    what’s to worry? their government will fail and the population will drop to far below that figure well before 2060. good bye, pensioners.

  16. TPTB won’t ever “come to jesus”, metaphorically speaking, voluntarily. If Hitlary gets anointed, there will be blood.

    @ Obrien – I shocked I tell you, shocked.

  17. @ Mr. Obrien–dmitry orlov has been calling the whole boston bombing caper a sham, or false flag. if so, i wonder whom he blames the three deaths and multiple maimings upon? was there a real bomb blast planted among many actors?

    the chechen bros were there, as they have them on surveillance camera. later, we’re told they used similar home-made bombs in a standoff with police, and are shown evidence of them. that looks very incriminating, but maybe their bombs were not even used at the finish line.

    also, the older brother was “killed in the standoff with police”. yet, there is a picture of him on the net being escorted in cuffs and sans clothes after the event. one thing for sure, he arrives at the hospital mortally wounded or dead. was it from the gunfire, or did the police simply beat him to death?

  18. on a lighter note:

    “Lake Mead now down to 1083 Feet and falling at the same steady rate of around 1 Foot every 3 days.

    The 1050 Foot Critical Level when they have to shut down the turbines of the Hoover Dam is 33 Feet away, so at the current rate of decline it should occur in a little over 3 months (99 Days), so call the beginning of August as CRUNCH TIME for Hoover.”–RE

    link with nice linear trend chart from NOAA: http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/index.php/topic,2356.msg72134.html#msg72134

    question: how will Las Vegas and vicinity fare without electricity from Hoover Dam? let’s see now: no power to pump water from what’s left of Lake Mead to city, no lights or working elevators in LV, no A/C, no running water. yup, the excitment may be over soon, or just beginning there, depending upon how you define it.

  19. what’s to worry? their government will fail and the population will drop to far below that figure well before 2060. good bye, pensioners.

    i’m not worried. i agree with you. 2060 world human population will be maybe 100 million or so. what i can’t really wrap my brain around is why are the japs dropping off already. they have food, water, energy, etc. why ain’t the cocksuckers breeding?

  20. Right up there with Sandy Hoax.

    fucking stupid. the fbi set up adam lanza? is that what you’re saying? and i thought adam lanza was retarded…

  21. “they have food, water, energy, etc. why ain’t the cocksuckers breeding?”

    digital reality + apathy

  22. per JHK today:
    “What happens on the world financial scene will determine the flow of events up into the 2016 election. The built-up tensions and fragilities are begging for release. The defining instant might be Greece’s unwillingness to fork over another debt payment, or the death of the shale oil “miracle,” or some act by Saudi Arabia’s enemies, or some chain of exploding booby-traps in the shadow banking netherworld.”

    maybe, but i’m going to throw this one out: how about when Hoover Dam’s hydro power is shut down this summer when (not if) Lake Mead can no longer provide enough hydraulic head to keep the turbines working? maybe they can stretch a few moron weeks out of Lake Powell spillage, but i’m not optimistic. i don’t know what the city of Las Vegas has for a plan B power grid, but i doubt it will be sufficent to replace all that lost hydroelectric power. if so, then expect some interesting domino effects as they try to relocate a couple million people post haste. LV 2013: metropolitan area has a population of 1.96 million.

  23. OK, that concern was short lived. per the Wiki: “Hoover Dam provides about 355 megawatts to the Nevada Power system. Contrary to popular opinion, Las Vegas does not get most of its power from the dam. It also does not get most of the power produced at the dam. California and Arizona get most of the dam’s generated power.”


    somebody’s gonna miss it. “The Hoover Dam, only 48 kilometres (30 miles) from Las Vegas, is one of the largest dams in the world, and generates more than 4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually.”

  24. Dunno doom. Whatever Plan B is, if there is one, probably won’t allow the margins LV needs to survive. don;t know if Palo Verde has any spare capacity or it that is even an option. There’s a couple of coal-fired plants on the Rez in AZ but liekey something is closer.

    Where I live we have our own nat gas gen station. I plan to put in a dual fuel (natty/LP) whole house genset/bypass soon as well, plus bump the capacity of the solar/batteries in the work shed – they’re currently more experimental than production. I pay more for a whole-house genset itself, but save on the rest because I switch the mains and use the existing panel as is. Being single phase, no phasing issues. In-line UPSes (no reaction time, always on battery) run the computers and comms plus filter the power for noise and over/under voltage, so they’ll likely never know of the switch.

  25. Hoover = 4 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. That’s 4 E+12 watt-hours. Canyon Diablo nuke is 2 GW-hour, or 2 E+09 watt-hours. So, if my math is not failing me, that’s 4 E+12/2 E+09 = 2 E+03 power plants that size spread out over a year.

    One year = 365 (24) hours = 8,760 hours. 2 E+03/8.76 E+03 = 0.23 Canyon Diablo nukes. So, a one quarter sized Canyon Diablo nuke. Should be replaceable, then. Whew!

  26. What is the other power you get from a dam? The power of luck?
    ” Las Vegas does not get most of its power from the dam. It also does not get most of the power produced at the dam.”
    So I assume there is some hydro-numismatic system from the constant flow of metal down some turbine slot in a poker machine?

  27. yarra, they’re getting thier power from coal and nat gas. despite their proximity, LV was never a big player in Hoover hydro power, but benefits immensely from the presence of Lake Mead. once the lake dries up, so does LV, unless they can pipe water in from upper tier US states and/or western Canada. maybe best to abandon the city.

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