10.05.2016

10.05.2016 (34 days left)

Time for Real Answers on War
Trump and Clinton both keep the American people in the dark.
By ANDREW J. BACEVICH • October 4, 2016

America’s Outdated Special Relationship With Saudi Arabia
The next U.S. president will have an unprecedented opportunity to put some distance between Washington and Riyadh
by Ryan Suto
October 05, 2016

The first justification for the Washington-Riyadh relationship, the politics of oil, will undoubtedly remain an important factor for years to come. However, US per-capita consumption of foreign oil has been steadily decreasing for decades, with 2014 levels below 1994 levels. The declining importance of foreign oil for the US economy will allow future US presidents more room for policy divergence with foreign producers, such as Saudi Arabia.

The second justification, maintaining regional stability, is now an illusion. A nation or a region is politically “stable” when it is unlikely to change. In the context of the Cold War, where Western-approved dictators ruled largely docile publics, maintaining the status quo meant policy predictability.

Pedestrian and naive. Can’t see the forest through the trees. Washington is 100% dependent on all of Saudi’s exports. Those exports run China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe. Without them-no American empire. Collapsing global economy means collapsing American Empire. The Saudis know this. So do we.

 

 

Another BLM Narrative Collapse. Americans Will Opt for Law and Order
JOHN DERBYSHIRE • OCTOBER 1, 2016

Russia has again shown that it’s always one step ahead of the US in Syria

This entry was posted by JR.

52 thoughts on “10.05.2016

  1. i’m still thinking a price spike in oil. production must drop if the price won’t support production. as in almost everything humans do, they will over react, production will be cut too much, triggering a price spike…

  2. gb, long time no read. welcome back.

    those hidden owls drive me a bit crazy about evolution. i guess over a long enough period, those owls who didn’t cammo well stood out, and died young of starvation, leaving ones like in the photo, who (whoo, whooo) ate well and procreated. this one is so good that it’s nearly impossible to discover, even knowing it must be hiding in that tree.

  3. More like the ones that didn’t camo well were noticed by larger owls like barred owls and great horned owls, their main predators and were quickly eliminated from the gene pool. That is mainly what the camo is for…daytime hiding from predators while resting, sleeping and waiting for the evening hunt.

    OEO – I remember from the old CFN. Was he paid…a pro?

  4. “OEO – I remember from the old CFN. Was he paid…a pro?”

    good question. knowing Kunstler’s budget problems, he was not funding anybody. also, JR invited OEO to blog here on ZK. he showed up, but quickly lost interest. like a true troll, they feed off the idiot bloggers, which CFN had/has plenty.

  5. you’re right about the owls. forgot about those big eyes and night predation. of course they would need a safe place to sleep during the day.

  6. Hi JR, it seems I’ve had a recent post to this thread redirected into the spam bin. I don’t know why it apparently did so. Could you please rescue it for me? Mahalo.

  7. I think I’d take the owl over the shapely redhead.

    E. Screech Owl: low maintenance – eats mice, sleeps in a tree. rare -probably only 800,000 to 900,000 in existence.
    Shapely redhead: high maintenance – probably eats steak, sleeps in mansion. super-abundant – more common than the starling.

  8. “Western civilization before then—dating back at least to ancient Athens—prized leisure above all else, and saw the work necessary to sustain basic human needs as a slave’s job.”

  9. “There is a standard term in historical studies for that kind of future. That term is “dark age.”

    what a fucking retard, all ages are dark ages…

  10. from PeakOilBarrel.com

    steve from virginia says:
    10/10/2016 at 11:17 am

    My unicorn is better looking than Rystad’s and besides … it can beat your unicorn at checkers!

    This is how silly the entire Rystad article is … as per all the other articles it is about ‘supply’ (available to extract) with nothing at all said about what is done with the oil after it is pulled from the ground. Trillions of barrels of oil; trillions of useless words because they all carefully dance around the consumption issue … the absence of top-line return on waste of all that fuel.

    Those trillion-plus barrels that have been already squandered: what do we have to show for them? A trillion barrels plus of the easiest to obtain oil, the closest to the surface oil, the oil that squirts out of the ground under field pressure, oil that is easiest to refine … most of it gone.

    Not quite exactly: all of it is circling over our heads in the atmosphere like an avenging god, waiting for the chance to destroy us all … by poisoning or burning out our agriculture.

    What’s left is under the ice or the middle of the ocean or part of cap rock; impossibly expensive to extract. Oil that is more corrosive than usual; that rots the pipelines and field equipment … oil that is more toxic or more explosive, more difficult to process, is not oil at all but more like asphalt or tar … what costs a lot more to pump, refine, distribute; costs that cannot be met with our ongoing, precious waste regime but only with more and more loans.

    What do we have in our hands for all that oil wasted? Some potholed freeways and rusty/dented used cars, obsolete suburbs of biodegradable tract housing, concrete cities that begin to decay before they are finished … self-annihilating military, corrupt government, lying analysts, finance run amok all the way past insolvency into liquidation, poisoned water, poisoned land, depleted topsoil, super-bugs and super-weeds … that’s it. No ‘wealth’ to share, nothing to pay for lifting what remains, only unicorns dancing and losing at checkers.

    Reply

    Watcher says:
    10/10/2016 at 11:30 am

    What do we have in our hands for all that oil wasted?

    About 5.5 billion more people. None of them would say that is a waste.

    But they’ll be going away soon, quickly, violently, as flow does.

  11. yeah, that oil created a whole bunch of entropy, degraded a big fat energy gradient. i wouldn’t call that a waste by a long shot. that’s what it’s all about, literally….

  12. “We may have to accept the reality of low growth,” said John Fernald, a senior research at the San Franciso Fed. “Potential is really low.”

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-idUSKBN12E22M?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

    They just can’t mouth the word “deflation” (too scary), but they describe it fairly well, with the big exception of this BS line:

    “Investors think the Fed is likely to raise rates in December, a nod to the country’s 5 percent unemployment rate and expectations that inflation will rise.”

    I’d guess that the real US unemployment rate is closer to 25%.

  13. Implications of Peak Oil for Humanity: a 10-year Update

    Dr. Doom
    TGIF seminar
    Oct 21, 2016

    Abstract
    Humans have invented many methods and devices for extending their population growth since we diverged from our common ancestor with the apes in the Miocene. The solution to each resource crisis has been driven by apparent necessity, as the old ways were no longer able to provide sufficient means for subsistence, and we faced a Malthusian reduction in numbers. Critical inventions that increased our exponential growth in more recent times have been agriculture at ca. 7-8 ka BP and those of the Industrial Revolution circa 1850. The latter set of inventions allowed our increased exploitation of the fossil fuels– first coal, then oil and natural gas, followed more recently by fission nuclear and so-called renewable power from biomass, solar, wind, tides, waves, hydro, OTEC and geothermal. The fossil fuels, being finite in amount, are depleting, and the more recent energy resource developments have not, and likely will not, scale to need.
    Cheap-to-extract “conventional” oil production peaked in 2005-6, and has since been buoyed by expensive-to-extract unconventional oil and liquids. The USA-led global financial industry increased from 8% of the economy in 1960 to 23% in 2012, along with wealth disparity. After the 2008 Financial Crisis, brought about by the burst of a massive real estate bubble in 2007 and speculative oil price increases to $147/barrel, governments and central banks kept oil prices high enough for unconventional oil extraction through loans at near zero % interest rates. Increasing debt from “quantitative easing” is nearing its effectual end, lowering oil and other commodity prices as “easy money” and their investments are withdrawn, a temporary oil glut issues, and global demand lowers from the accumulated economic damage to the commodity-consuming middle and lower classes worldwide.
    Dr. M. King Hubbert, a leader in petroleum geology, made accurate predictions of USA and global conventional oil production peaks, and optimistically predicted that if nuclear or solar energy made a developmental breakthrough at least 30-40 years before the global oil peak, human population and BAU (business-as-usual) could continue more-or-less indefinitely. Unfortunately, that breakthrough did not materialize, and the complex, fragile, highly interconnected global economy we depend upon could break down at any time, with widespread grim results.

  14. Yarra, yes, that’s basically correct, from our (human’s) point of view. We’ve shit in our nest, and momma and poppa aren’t bringing any moron food.

  15. the way that people were fighting over the hillary statue. i found that unsettling. really makes me look forward to NTE.

  16. driver picks up an easy spare…

    actually, he swerved to miss him/her, but expected the pedestrian to keep walking. nice double back flip before landing in median. 8 points.

  17. so one of my colleagues comes up to me after my seminar as says: “Thanks for scaring the shit out of me.”

    i consider it a compliment. mission accomplished.

  18. The crosswalk without a corresponding caution light or red light is an accident waiting to happen.

  19. so there has been some email discussion of my seminar on Friday. two of my critics commenting and providing what they claim are “good news” counter argument links (one is peer-reviewed! as if.) on slowing global population growth. i know they didn’t attend. amazing, comments likely driven by denial and/or an attempt to keep the student body hopeful and paying those tuition dollars.

    nothing to see here, move along.

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