Tuesday, June 25th, 2024
Israeli forces bomb Gaza where one strike killed 10 family members of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. (RFI)
At least four people are killed and 40 others are injured when Russian Iskander-M ballistic missiles hit Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine. (The Kyiv Independent) (Reuters)
The European Union formally launches accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. (Barron’s)
The Supreme Court of Israel rules that the Israel Defense Forces and the government of Israel are legally bound to conscript yeshiva students. (Times of Israel)
Lawmakers from the Haredi community criticise the decision. (The Jerusalem Post)
WikiLeaks‘ Julian Assange is freed after pleading guilty to US espionage charge. (Reuters)
The International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Russia’s chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and former defence minister Sergei Shoigu. (Barron’s) (The Guardian)
The Parliament Building in Nairobi is set ablaze and ten protesters are shot dead. (Reuters)
China’s Chang’e 6 lunar exploration mission successfully returns to Earth after taking rock and soil samples from the far side of the moon. (AP)
Monday, June 24th, 2024
The death toll from the attack on a synagogue and Orthodox church in Derbent and Makhachkala, Dagestan, Russia, yesterday, increases to 20, with 46 others injured. (Reuters)
At least 16 people are killed and 13 others are injured in Dagestan, Russia, when gunmen open fire on a synagogue and an Orthodox church in Derbent and on a traffic police post in Makhachkala. (Al Arabiya) (RBK)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejects the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal for the war in Gaza, instead committing to continuing the war and “the goal of eliminating Hamas.” (TIME)
Eleven Palestinians, including the director of Gaza’s Ambulance and Emergency Department, are killed in Israeli airstrikes on the al-Shati refugee camp, Bani Suhaila, and Gaza City. (Reuters)
Twenty-two people are killed and two others are injured in a fire at a lithium battery factory in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi, South Korea. (Reuters)
Eight people are killed in a fire in an office building in Fryazino, Moscow Oblast, Russia. (BBC News)
Officials in Blue Earth County, Minnesota, issue an evacuation warning due to flooding on the Blue Earth River breaching the Rapidan Dam, pushing it into an “imminent failure condition” upstream of several cities. Flooding also collapses a railroad bridge connecting South Dakota and Iowa and kills two people. (WCCO-TV) (AP)
The Royal Zoological Society of Scotland reports that Scottish wildcat kittens have been born in the Cairngorms National Park, in a “major milestone” for the conservation of the critically endangered population. (The Guardian)
Trial courts in Metro Manila, Philippines, dismiss the remaining charges filed against former senator Leila de Lima during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte, including the last of the three involving her alleged conspiracy in the illegal drug trade, as well as another on her disobedience to a summons for a House hearing. (BBC News)
WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange enters a plea deal with the U.S. Justice Department, in which he will be found guilty on one federal charge in exchange for his release back to Australia. (ABC News)
Violence and riots resume in New Caledonia after eight pro-independence activists were flown to France for pre-trial detention yesterday. Protesters burn police vehicles, block roads, and set fire to the town hall in Koumac. (Al Jazeera)
In ice hockey, the Florida Panthers win the 2024 Stanley Cup Finals, beating the Edmonton Oilers in 7 games, making it their first championship in franchise history. The win comes after losing the previous year’s Stanley Cup Finals against the Vegas Golden Knights. The Panthers also avoid becoming the 5th team in National Hockey League history to lose a series despite having a 3-0 series lead, and the 2nd to do so in the Stanley Cup Finals since the 1941–42 Detroit Red Wings. (The Washington Post)
One person is killed and ten others are injured in Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, Ukraine. (Reuters)
Eight Palestinians are killed in IDF airstrikes that hit a UNRWA-run vocational college in Gaza City that was being used to distribute aid. (Reuters)
North Macedonia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs urges all its citizens in Lebanon to leave as soon as possible due to “deteriorating security” in the region from escalating conflicts. (Sloboden Pečat)
The Houthis claim to have carried out a joint military operation with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq to target four vessels in the Port of Haifa, Israel. (Al Jazeera)
More than 150,000 Israelis rally and march in Tel Aviv to protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, calling for new elections, the return of hostages, and a ceasefire. (Al Jazeera)
Independence leader Christian Tein and seven other activists are flown to France for pre-trial detention after being arrested for inciting violence and riots in New Caledonia. (Al Jazeera)
On the Grand Duke’s Official Birthday, Henri, Grand Duke of Luxembourg announces that his son and heir Guillaume will assume royal duties beginning in October, in preparation for Henri’s eventual abdication. (Luxembourg Times)
The End
Zulu Kilo 
lots of rounded, spherical shapes.
D. Orlov
Jun 26 02:04
The Divided States of America
A handy historical rule of thumb: when debt service costs of a mighty empire exceed its defense spending, the mighty empire is at an end. So far, this rule has held for the Ottoman, Russian and British empires; the US empire is testing it now. The Congressional Budget Office found that the federal government has spent more on paying interest on the national debt than on the military in fiscal year 2024. US defense spending is roughly $1 trillion a year — and debt service payment will be even higher.
According to the CBO, the US federal debt is going to jump yet again, by close to $2 trillion and exceed the truly gargantuan figure of $36 trillion. A steady stream of billions being sent to support failing imperial projects in the former Ukraine, in temporarily Israeli-occupied Palestine and in the Chinese province of Taiwan are helping with this endless debt bloat.
Meanwhile, as the world gradually but steadily turns away from the US dollar, the process of exporting inflation has stopped, meaning that dollar inflation will remain stubbornly above 3%, in turn forcing the US to continue borrowing at higher and higher interest rates. The tipping point for national bankruptcy and into failed state mode is approaching rapidly.
An inflection point will be reached when Asian countries, including China, which hold huge quantities of US debt in the form of US Treasuries, react to a worsening political relationship with the US by dumping these US Treasuries on the open market. Who will precipitate this disaster in the making? Why, the US government itself! Sanctions and tariffs are America’s favorite tools, and it simply doesn’t know how to stop. The negative feedback loop, which should exist between the US imposing sanctions and tariffs and the sanctioned countries selling off its US debt holdings, simply doesn’t exist. Instead, at every turn, the US government responds by digging its own financial grave faster and faster.
Russia was the first to opt out of this game by zeroing out its holdings of US Treasuries. Now, while Russia quietly plots to deliver a coup de grace to the US in some non-financial, kinetic yet plausibly deniable fashion, it is China’s turn: over the past few years, it has reduced its holdings of US debt by a third and shows no signs of slowing down. In addition, the work on isolating the global economy from the US dollar is ongoing, since its toxic nature has become obvious to almost all participants in world trade. The latest example is Việt Nam, which, as a follow-up to Putin’s recent visit, is switching its trade to national currencies. As an additional follow-up to Putin’s visit, Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son met with US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kretinbrink and told him Hanoi views Washington as a strategic partner. In other news, Americans still love the smell of napalm in the morning and words are still cheap.
The willingness of the rest of the world to absorb excess US debt issuance is what has allowed the US to cope with its excessive level of debt. But now the terminal disease of the US dollar is for everyone to behold: everyone is starting to avoid it as if it were a leper. In turn, the death of the US dollar will mean the death of the United States, turning it into the Divided States. Being able to issue checks that don’t bounce is a key function of the US federal government. Once this function becomes impaired — either through hyperinflation or through other, more direct sorts of insolvency, the individual states will inevitably drift apart.
What will happen to each individual state depends on the structure of its economy. Behold the following per capita balance of payments map (for 2019, but these are systemic effects that don’t change too fast).
What we see here is that just four states — New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Jersey — are pulling the entire train by giving more to the federal project than they receive. However, if you take away the economic effect of defense spending (Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman in Massachusetts and Connecticut) and of federally guaranteed student loans (especially in Massachusetts) their share will dwindle. Just four more states — huge California, midsize Minnesota and Colorado and tiny Utah — are also donors, but relatively minor ones.
A few more gray states manage to hold their own, for now: Texas because of energy, Washington because of Microsoft, Illinois because of Boeing and Nebraska which is too small to matter. And the rest are FEDERAL MONEY SPONGES. There is an entire continent’s worth of insolvency coming up between the relatively rich New York and New England and the troubled but still rich California; what is going to hold them together. And then there are Alaska and Hawaii… aren’t they Russian in any case? Alaska still is, by international law, now that the 100-year US lease on it has expired.
That, then, is the landscape of DSA — the Divided States of America. The Northeastern Agglomeration will somehow muddle through, as will California, but they will have precious little to do with each other and no compelling reason to stay united. There is nothing to hold the two coasts together except air freight (which is too expensive to account for much trade) and the Interstate Highway System — and who will pay for that, New York or California? Neither, I would think. The rail system in the US so tired that derailments happen several times a day; nobody will be able to keep it up either. The more fertile states of the Midwest and the South will simply disappear, eventually replaced by a new tribal Anabaptistan (that looks inevitable, given the relative birth rates). Alaska will scurry back to Russia; and I wouldn’t even venture to guess what the future holds for Hawaii.
The switch-over from the United States of America to the Divided States of America will result in a new global economic pecking order: China as #1, India #2 and Russia (which is currently at #4) moving up to #3. And with that the aberrant historical period during which the wrong side of the planet could tell the right side of the planet what to do will draw to a close.
As usual, I mostly agree with Orlov.
The tax burden here in CT is kind of at the breaking point. I guess. Also, there is a large welfare class here, supported by the tax burden. I guess.
The education budget in most towns overshadows the rest of their combined budget. That is, they spend more on education than they do on all other services combined, and by some wide margin. Both teachers and administrators are well compensated here. Exactly for what? I’ve never been able to figure out.
“and I wouldn’t even venture to guess what the future holds for Hawaii.”
that’s a topic we obviously consider. Hawaii still imports about 90% of its food from the mainland US. if that process stopped, about a million local residents and about 0.5 million military would be endangered. i assume the military would attempt to take care of themselves, by naval/air force food shipments or evacuation. maybe some residents could be similarly saved.
the standing crop of 0.5 million tourists would be sent home, if possible, early in the game. sticking around might work for a few hundred thousand locals. guessing that a return to a Hawaiian monarchy might be in the works. might be a tough place to survive if your skin is the wrong color.
hard labor at collective farming would be the order of the day. new owners might include the Chinese or North Koreans.
What’s fishing like in HI?
there’s deep-sea fishing in the coastal waters for tuna (ahi), swordfish, marlin, wahoo, etc. these are big game fish that cost a lot of energy to catch. there’s probably more shore fishing for smaller fish, opakapaka, akule, various snappers. it’s probably all overfished. the problem in Hawaii is the surrounding ocean is oligotrophic. makes for great clear blue waters for diving, but not enough plankton in it to support a large fishery.
so i started to read the revised version of Collapse by Jared Diamond, published in 2011. the original was published in 2005. the chapter on Easter Island was indeed revised. there is now vigorous citing of the researchers he paraphrases, and he now acknowledges that the extinct palms had fossil seeds with signs of gnawing by the polynesian rat. for that, he devotes one sentence and does not cite anyone. his main conclusions of “ecocide” by the ancient islanders remains the same.
the controversy has recently shifted to how many people ever lived there. Diamond favors the larger population estimates of up to 17,000 while other researchers believe it was never more than about 4,000, the population estimated to be living there by early European visitors, including Cook. the Chilean colonists treated the islanders like shit, and tensions remain between them to this day.
the timing of the ecocide seems to correspond with the peak of moai carving and emplacement on the ahu or stone platforms, always facing inland from the coast. it happened between about 1400 and 1600 AD. the polynesians discovered Easter (Rapa Nui) in abut 900 AD. looks like a cult or religious following that got out of control on an island with a deceptively fragile ecology. the island has been denuded since that time. no standing moai were found, and many of them showed signs that they were broken on purpose.
sort of like mormons settling Utah without the ecocide, but they probably tried.
looks good in a sock or gunnysack, like Anne Margaret.
it looks like Trump won the mud slinging contest, round 1.
I’ll have to try to catch some reruns today.
from RT commentary:
DJMatakite
Watching Obiden’s pitiful performance was almost physically painful. (Even I suspect for moderators Tapper and Bash – who surprisingly acted equitably throughout).
Mouth agape…
Empty stare….
Vacant facial expression…
Weak whispery voice…
Fake anger….
Mumbling constantly…
Lying profusely…
Constantly staring down at his monitor (clearly reading)…
Slow robotic movements….
Goodbye Obiden. You’re done.
from CNN, regarding Biden’s debate performance:
“And one Democrat who’s worked on campaigns up and down the ballot said simply: “We are f**ked.””
https://www.rt.com/news/600130-joe-could-be-convicted-trump/
Biden ‘could be convicted’ – Trump
The former US president has hinted that his rival may be prosecuted in the future
The CNN-hosted Trump-Biden debate as seen at a watch party, held at The Continental Club on June 27, 2024 in Los Angeles. © Mario Tama / Getty Images / AFP
US President Joe Biden could be criminally prosecuted in the future, former President Donald Trump warned during a televised debate on Thursday. The two rivals for the 2024 presidential election faced off in Atlanta, Georgia.
pool cleaned, fit and ready.
I watched some clips from the debate. Nothing really unexpected. I guess that even the left wing media is now admitting the Biden is demented.
Today’s word, after the debate, is schadenfreude.
I watched bits and pieces of the debate this morning. All, I can really say is that if there ever was any doubt in anyone’s mind, that Biden is demented, I have to think that those doubts have been eliminated.
Also, in the bits that I saw, there was no debate of any “issues”, just a bunch of mud slinging.
his handlers either decided not to drug him, or the mix they chose didn’t work as expected. doses were too low.
So, this article seems to be saying that there was no population collapse on Easter Island.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/06/we-now-have-even-more-evidence-against-the-ecocide-theory-of-easter-island/
If I’m reading this right, they seem to be saying that the islanders were able to support a steady population of about 3000, mostly by using some form of rock gardening. Seems specious to me.
that’s probably correct. the Lipo author they quote focused on available nutrients in the island soils. those could have been augmented with marine sources, fish, birds, a few turtles, especially when they still had boats. but maybe Diamond got it wrong on the population crash. there was still a loss of complexity, and the effort to make and transport the moai to their ahu platforms.
looks like a cult activity to me. the Maya did similar, to get the peasants to worship and support the elites. promises of prosperity made, then broken when the climate changes. then revolt and collapse.